New England Landmark Realty covers the Vermont real estate market 

from the inside — market data, buyer strategy, seller timing, land 

use regulation, and the policy decisions shaping what homes cost and 

who can afford them.

 

Tony Walton has been working Vermont real estate since 1978. 

The analysis here reflects that depth.

 

Browse by topic below, or use the search to find what you need.

July 18, 2026

The Vermont Builder's Playbook: An Insider's Guide to Saving Money on Your New Home

The Numbers Guy's Full Article (Unedited)

Quick Answer

How can you save money building a house in Vermont?

  1. Buy a lot with septic design, water access, and survey work already completed.
  2. Test for soil conditions and ledge before closing.
  3. Compare builders using line-item inclusions, labor rates, and markup.
  4. Negotiate fixed-price terms where possible and plan an efficient groundbreaking date.
  5. Lock finish decisions early and reduce square footage before reducing construction quality.

Building new in Vermont is expensive by nature — short seasons, strict energy codes, and a state full of ledge and rolling terrain don't lend themselves to cheap construction. But "expensive" and "unnecessarily expensive" are two different things, and most of the gap between them comes down to decisions made before a shovel ever hits the ground. Here's what the process actually rewards, if you know where to look.

1. Buy Land That's Already Done the Hard Part

The single biggest lever most buyers overlook is the land itself. A lot with an approved septic design, confirmed water access (municipal or a proven well), and a completed survey has already absorbed months of engineering, testing, and permitting risk — work that costs real money and real time on a raw, unapproved parcel. Two lots priced $50,000 apart can actually favor the more expensive one once you account for the $15,000–$30,000 and several months typically spent getting an unapproved parcel through septic design and permitting. Always ask what's already been done to a lot, not just what it costs.

Key Takeaways ▼ Open

Two-Sentence Summary

Vermont land buyers and future homeowners can use this playbook to identify cost exposure before choosing a lot, builder, contract, or finish package. The strongest savings come from reducing uncertainty before excavation and preventing avoidable changes after construction begins.

The Numbers Guy Summary

The lowest-priced lot or builder proposal is not automatically the least expensive path to a finished Vermont home. Septic approval, ledge, excluded bid items, contract structure, and late finish decisions can each move the final number. Smaller square footage often protects quality and long-term value better than cutting construction standards. The budget is usually won or lost before the first shovel reaches the ground.

Quick Facts

  • An unapproved parcel may require $15,000–$30,000 in septic design and permitting work.
  • Builder markup on subcontractor work commonly falls in the 15–20% range.
  • A project described as a $500,000 build can move beyond $550,000 through accumulated change orders.

Data from sources listed below.

2. Get a Soil and Ledge Assessment Before You Fall in Love With a Lot

Ledge is the single most common budget-buster in Vermont construction, and it's almost always a surprise because most buyers don't test for it until the excavator is already scheduled. A modest investment in a soil boring or test pit before closing can save five or six figures in blasting and rock-hammering costs down the line — or at minimum, let you negotiate the price down or walk away with clear eyes.

3. Understand What "Per Square Foot" Actually Includes

This is where a lot of budgets quietly go sideways. One builder's $275/sf number includes cabinetry, a generator, decks, and finish allowances. Another builder's $275/sf covers framing and drywall only, with everything else billed separately. Before comparing bids, get a line-item breakdown from each builder of exactly what's inside their number — site work, design fees, appliances, and landscaping are the categories most often left out, and most often forgotten until the invoices start arriving.

4. Push for a Fixed-Price Contract, Not Time-and-Materials

Most Vermont builders work on a time-and-materials (T&M) basis by default, with a builder markup on top of subcontractor invoices and materials. That structure puts nearly all the cost-overrun risk on you. A fixed-price contract shifts that risk to the builder — they'll price in a bit of cushion for it, but it protects you from mid-project material price swings and gives you a number you can actually plan around. If a builder won't do fixed-price at all, that's worth asking why.

5. Time Your Groundbreaking Around Vermont's Building Season

Vermont's construction window is short, and a project that breaks ground in early spring moves very differently than one that starts in October and immediately runs into frost, snow, and reduced crew availability. Winter work isn't just slower — it often costs more directly, through heated enclosures and weather delays. If you have any flexibility on timeline, aim to have permitting wrapped up early enough to break ground by late spring.

6. Choose Municipal Water Over a Private Well When You Can

Where it's available, a municipal water connection is typically more predictable than drilling a private well — mainly tap fees and trenching, versus a well where depth, yield, and rock conditions aren't fully known until the rig is already on-site. It's not always an option depending on the lot, but if you're choosing between two otherwise similar parcels, municipal access is usually the lower-risk (and often lower-cost) path.

7. Lock Your Finish Decisions Before Construction Starts

Change orders are the quietest, most reliable way a project goes over budget — a bigger window here, upgraded flooring there, an extra outlet run somewhere else. None of them look expensive in the moment. All of them add up. Making your finish decisions — flooring, fixtures, cabinetry, paint colors — before the framing is up, rather than deciding as you go, is one of the easiest ways to keep a "$500,000 build" from quietly becoming $550,000+.

8. Ask About In-House Labor Rates and Markup, Not Just the Bottom Line

Most Vermont builders bill subcontractor work with a markup (commonly 15–20%) and bill their own in-house labor at a separate hourly rate. Two builders can have very similar sounding proposals with meaningfully different economics underneath. Asking directly what the markup is, and what's marked up, gives you a much clearer read on where your money is actually going — and some room to negotiate.

9. Consider a Modest Size Over a Modest Finish Level

If a budget needs to come down, cutting square footage usually preserves value better than cutting finish quality. A smaller, well-built home tends to hold resale value better than a larger home with builder-grade finishes throughout — and it's also simply cheaper to heat, maintain, and furnish for years afterward.

10. Get Real Quotes From Local Builders, Not National Calculators

Online cost calculators are a reasonable starting point for a ballpark, but they don't know your specific town's permitting quirks, your site's soil conditions, or which local subcontractors are actually available and reasonably priced right now. A conversation with two or three Vermont-based builders who know your specific area will get you a far more useful number than any generic per-square-foot tool — and it's free.

The Bottom Line

Nothing here makes Vermont construction cheap — the state's terrain, climate, and code requirements make sure of that. But the difference between a build that comes in close to budget and one that blows past it almost always traces back to decisions made in the first few weeks: the lot you choose, the contract structure you sign, and how early you lock in your finishes. Get those right, and you're building smart, not just building.

Have a specific lot or builder quote you'd like a second set of eyes on? That's exactly the kind of conversation worth having before you sign anything.

How Can New England Landmark Realty Help With a Vermont New Build?

New England Landmark Realty can help Vermont buyers compare lots and builder proposals before a $15,000–$30,000 approval gap or a major site-condition surprise reaches the construction budget.

A parcel review can focus the conversation on septic status, water access, surveys, zoning, site conditions, comparable finished homes, and the assumptions behind each builder quote.

The cheapest build is often the one with fewer unknowns.

Office: 802-253-4711
Toll-Free: 866-324-2427
Cell: 802-233-4107
Website: nelandmark.com

Sources

July 15, 2026

Central Vermont Land: Where the Market Is Moving, and Where It's Standing Still

The Numbers Guy's Full Article (Unedited)

Quick Answer

Where is land selling fastest in Central Vermont in 2026?

Warren leads the region with 12 land closings year-to-date, an average of 29.5 days on market, and a median sale price at 100% of list.

If you're buying or selling land anywhere from the Mad River Valley to Stowe to the Northeast side of Montpelier this year, here's the honest picture the data is telling us: this is not one market. It's several markets stacked on top of each other, and knowing which one your parcel sits in matters more than any single comp.

We pulled every land transaction across Chittenden, Lamoille, and Washington counties year-to-date through mid-July 2026 — 366 listings in all — and layered in single-family home data for context. Here's what buyers and sellers on both sides of a land deal need to understand right now.

The Big Picture: A Market That's Working, Unevenly

Ninety land parcels have closed across the three counties this year. The median sale landed at 94.6% of list price, with a median 65 days on market. That's a healthy, functioning market by most measures — not a fire sale, not a bidding frenzy, just steady transaction activity.

But absorption pace tells a different story depending on where you're standing:

  • Washington County: roughly 14.4 months of land inventory at the current sales pace
  • Lamoille County: roughly 16.1 months
  • Chittenden County: roughly 26.9 months

Chittenden's number stands out, and it's not because Chittenden land is unwanted — it's that a lot of the active inventory there is small, expensive infill parcels that appeal to a narrower buyer pool and simply take longer to place.

Key Takeaways ▼ Open

Two-Sentence Summary

Central Vermont land buyers and sellers need to judge each parcel by its town, zoning, buildability, and competition from resale homes. The three-county data helps buyers identify leverage and helps sellers price against the economics of building, not just nearby land comps.

The Numbers Guy Summary

Land is moving fastest where demand, buildability, and pricing align. Warren combines 12 closings, 29.5 average days on market, and a median sale price at 100% of list. Waterbury shows the opposite pattern: homes are moving quickly while nine land listings have produced no closings. The decisive variables are zoning clarity, build-vs-buy economics, financing, and the size of the buyer pool.

Quick Facts

  • Ninety land parcels closed across Chittenden, Lamoille, and Washington counties through mid-July 2026.
  • The median sale reached 94.6% of list price after a median 65 days on market.
  • Estimated inventory ranged from 14.4 months in Washington County to 26.9 months in Chittenden County.

Data from sources listed below.

Where the Market Is Moving: Warren Leads the Pack

If you want to see what a genuinely strong land market looks like right now, look at Warren. Twelve closings year-to-date — the most of any town in the region — with an average of just 29.5 days on market and a median sale price at 100% of list. That's volume, speed, and pricing integrity all showing up together, and it almost certainly reflects sustained demand tied to the Mad River Valley/Sugarbush recreational corridor.

Morristown and Stowe are also worth watching. Morristown led Lamoille County in volume with nine closings. Stowe closed seven parcels at a much higher price point (averaging around $704,000) and a longer 119-day marketing period — but still near 91% of list. That's not weakness, that's simply what a slower-moving luxury/resort land segment looks like when it's healthy.

Where the Market Is Stalled — and Why

Now for the towns where land simply isn't moving. These aren't struggling for the same reason, so it's worth separating them into three distinct patterns:

Remote, unimproved land with a thin buyer pool — Waterville, Middlesex, Marshfield. Cheap on a per-acre basis, but often listed with vague or blank zoning information. That ambiguity around access, permitting, and utilities scares off all but the most speculative buyers, and land loans are hard enough to get without adding uncertainty on top.

High-end infill competing for a narrow buyer — Charlotte, South Burlington. These parcels carry premium per-acre pricing in expensive, close-in towns. The buyer here is specific: someone who wants to custom-build, has capital for land and construction, and is willing to wait out a build timeline. That's always going to be a smaller, more patient pool — slow absorption here isn't a red flag, it's just a narrow lane.

Village/urban lots losing out to resale homes — Barre City, Jericho. When construction costs are elevated, the math frequently favors buying an existing house over building on a small in-town lot, even when the land itself is reasonably priced.

The Waterbury Case Study: A Strong Town, a Stuck Segment

Waterbury is the clearest illustration of why "the market" isn't a single thing — because Waterbury's home market and its land market are living in two completely different realities.

Single-family homes in Waterbury are on fire. Fourteen closings year-to-date, a median of just 24.5 days on market, and a median sale price at 96.4% of list — spanning everything from a $257,500 close to a $2.25 million close. Several sold at or above asking price in single-digit days on market. This is a deep, confident buyer pool.

Waterbury land, meanwhile, has recorded zero closings all year, against nine active listings with days-on-market ranging from a few weeks up to well over a year.

Why the disconnect in the same town? Three things:

  1. Much of the active land inventory isn't really residential. Several of Waterbury's stuck listings carry Village Commercial, Town Neighborhood Commercial, or highway-corridor zoning — a fundamentally different, thinner buyer pool than the one snapping up houses.
  2. The build-vs-buy math doesn't favor land right now. The median list price on Waterbury's genuinely buildable 1+ acre lots is around $450,000. Add current Vermont construction costs, and a from-scratch build often lands well above what a comparable finished home just sold for — in 24 days.
  3. Even well-zoned, genuinely buildable land is aging. It's not only the commercial-flavored parcels sitting stale — a 29-acre residentially-zoned lot has been on the market over 400 days. When houses are moving this fast, most buyers take the path of least resistance.

The takeaway for anyone with land in a market like Waterbury: it isn't that buyers don't want to be there. It's that raw land is currently losing the value argument against a hot resale market, townwide.

What Would Have to Change — and How Likely Is It?

A few conditions would need to line up to unstick markets like Waterbury's:

  • Construction costs easing relative to home prices, closing the build-vs-buy gap
  • Resale inventory tightening enough to force buyers toward building out of necessity
  • Land-specific financing loosening — more construction-to-permanent products, more bank appetite for raw land lending
  • Zoning clarity on ambiguous or mixed-use parcels, expanding the effective residential buyer pool
  • Mortgage rates easing meaningfully, narrowing the monthly-payment gap between buying and building

As of mid-July 2026, 30-year mortgage rates are sitting in the mid-6% range, and forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association both point to rates holding in that same band through the rest of the year and into 2027. Meaningful rate relief isn't on the near-term horizon, and construction costs tend to be sticky downward. Realistically, this is a medium-term structural condition, not something likely to flip in the next few months. The one lever sellers and agents can actually pull sooner is zoning and subdivision clarity — everything else depends on macro forces outside anyone's control.

What This Means If You're Buying

  • You have real leverage on land right now, especially in towns with long DOM and zero closings. Sellers of aging listings are competing against a resale market that's outperforming them.
  • Scrutinize zoning before you fall in love with acreage or price. A great $/acre number on a commercially-zoned or ambiguously-zoned parcel may not translate into a straightforward residential build.
  • Run the full build-vs-buy math before you commit, not just the land price. In towns like Waterbury, a finished home may currently be the more efficient path to the same outcome.
  • In fast-moving towns like Warren, don't expect the same leverage — that market is closing near full price in under a month, so come prepared to move decisively.

What This Means If You're Selling

  • Price to the build economics, not the comp set. Buyers are mentally weighing your land against a finished home, not just against other land. If that math doesn't work in your favor, price is the lever you control.
  • Remove buyer uncertainty before you list. A current survey, confirmed access, and completed perc/septic testing eliminate exactly the kind of ambiguity that's keeping remote and unclear-zoned parcels sitting the longest in this data.
  • Consider seller financing. Since land loans are harder to secure than conventional mortgages, offering to carry part of the note can meaningfully widen your buyer pool without waiting on rates or bank policy to change.
  • Market to the right buyer. Genuinely buildable residential land should be marketed to owner-builders and local spec builders — not lumped in with commercial-adjacent listings chasing an entirely different buyer.
  • Be realistic about timeline. With comparable land in towns like Waterbury sitting 200–400+ days without converting to a sale, pricing to the "wait it out" comp set is pricing to an outcome the data isn't currently supporting.

Have questions about how your specific property fits into this picture? That's exactly the kind of conversation worth having before you list or make an offer — reach out anytime.

How Can New England Landmark Realty Help With Central Vermont Land?

New England Landmark Realty can help buyers and sellers test zoning, pricing, and build-vs-buy assumptions against current market data. In a market ranging from 29.5 days on market in Warren to zero Waterbury land closings, parcel-level strategy matters.

The right decision starts with the parcel, not the countywide average.

Office: 802-253-4711
Toll-Free: 866-324-2427
Cell: 802-233-4107
Website: nelandmark.com

Sources

July 14, 2026

What Stowe’s STR Fight Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Right Now

Tony Walton's Full Article (Unedited)

If you own property in Stowe, are thinking about buying there, or are marketing a home where short-term rental income is part of the pitch, here’s the simple truth:

Quick Answer

Stowe’s current registry allows compliant STRs, but the proposed 850-license cap could make future use or transfer less certain. Buyers should verify eligibility, sellers should document current status, and investors should underwrite licensing risk rather than assume continued STR income.

The rules are still in motion, and that uncertainty now matters almost as much as the rules themselves.

As of today, short-term rentals are still allowed in Stowe under the town’s current registration system. That means owners must register, pay the fee, maintain a local response structure, and comply with fire-safety access rules.

But the town is actively working on a more restrictive ordinance that could cap STR licenses at 850, convert the current registry into a licensing structure, and limit how new licenses are issued going forward.

That changes the conversation for everyone.

If you’re a buyer

If you are buying a property in Stowe and the economics only work if you can run it as an STR, you should not treat that use as automatic.

Questions to ask now:

  • Is the property currently registered as an STR?
  • If a new ordinance passes, would that use be grandfathered, capped, or subject to lottery?
  • Is the property in a category likely to be treated differently — resort unit, condo-hotel, timeshare, homestead, or conventional single-family?
  • If the property changes hands, does the STR right survive the transfer?

The big mistake buyers make in towns like this is underwriting yesterday’s regulatory regime into tomorrow’s purchase price.

Don’t do that.

Key Takeaways

Two-Sentence Summary

Stowe buyers, sellers, and investors face different decisions under the same unsettled STR process. The practical task is to document the property’s current status and test every income assumption against the proposed licensing framework.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • A buyer should not assume that past or current STR activity guarantees future eligibility after a transfer.
  • A seller should document registration and compliance rather than market unspecified “Airbnb potential.”
  • An investor should treat licensing, exemptions, renewal, and lottery exposure as investment risks.

Quick Facts

  • Proposed STR license ceiling: 850.
  • Current framework: registration, a fee, local response coverage, and fire-safety access.
  • Possible future framework: licensing, issuance limits, and a lottery for available licenses.

Data from sources listed below.

If you’re a seller

If STR income is part of your value proposition, the town’s ongoing ordinance process cuts two ways.

The good news:

scarcity can support value if licenses become harder to get.

The bad news:

uncertainty can narrow your buyer pool right now, especially if buyers aren’t confident the next owner can operate the same way you do.

That means sellers need to market with precision, not vague optimism.

A smart listing strategy right now answers:

  • current registration status,
  • compliance status,
  • any grandfathering arguments,
  • whether the property fits a likely exempted category,
  • and how the pending ordinance could affect a future owner.

This is not the moment for airy language like “great Airbnb potential.”

This is the moment for documentation.

If you’re an STR investor

You’re no longer just buying a property. You may be buying into a regulatory queue.

If the cap structure survives, Stowe becomes less like an open STR market and more like a controlled licensing market. That changes return assumptions, exit assumptions, and legal diligence.

The key underwriting questions become:

  • Do I have a current compliant STR?
  • Am I buying a property with an existing path to renewal?
  • Am I buying into a segment that may be exempt?
  • If I need a new license later, am I relying on a capped system or lottery?

That’s not just operational friction. That’s investment risk.

The real takeaway

For years, the Stowe conversation was about whether STRs were good for the local economy.

Now the question is different:

Which STRs still fit the town’s future, and which ones doesn’t Stowe want more of?

That is a much more consequential question for pricing, marketing, and acquisition strategy.

If you are buying, selling, or investing in Stowe right now, this is not background noise. This is part of the asset.

And assets with moving regulatory frameworks deserve sharper diligence than usual.

How Should You Underwrite a Stowe Property With STR Income?

A Stowe property with STR income should be underwritten only after its current registration, likely license path, and transfer exposure are documented.

The proposed 850-license ceiling could affect renewal assumptions, buyer demand, resale strategy, and the value assigned to future rental revenue. New England Landmark Realty can help buyers and sellers separate confirmed property facts from regulatory assumptions before a contract or listing goes live.

Takeaway: Price the verified license path, not the hoped-for income stream.

Sources

July 12, 2026

Stowe Isn’t Banning STRs. It’s Deciding Who Gets To Print Money.

Tony Walton's Full Article (Unedited)

Quick Answer

No. Stowe’s current law is a registry, not a ban. The draft under discussion would create an 850-license cap, make licenses nontransferable, and distribute available licenses by lottery.

Let’s start with the lie everyone likes because it fits on a yard sign:

“Stowe banned short-term rentals.”

No, it didn’t.

Not yet.

What Stowe is doing is more Vermont than that — slower, more procedural, more lawyered, and, in its own way, more revealing. It is not swinging an axe. It is building a gate.

And the real question is not whether STRs are good or bad. That’s the kind of binary thinking that lives comfortably on Facebook and dies instantly in a town that survives on tourism, second homes, and workers who can no longer afford to live anywhere near the people they serve cocktails to.

The current law is not a ban. It’s a registry. You register the unit. You pay $100. You name a responsible person who can show up in 45 minutes if the place goes sideways. You give the fire department access. In other words, Stowe currently treats STRs like something between a business and a potential nuisance — not contraband.

Key Takeaways

Two-Sentence Summary

Stowe property owners, buyers, and sellers need to distinguish the current registration system from the proposed license cap. That distinction changes how they evaluate transferability, income potential, and resale value.

The Editorial Bottom Line

Current rule: register the unit, pay $100, name a 45-minute responder, and provide fire-department access. Draft rule: cap licenses at 850, make them nontransferable, and use lotteries when licenses become available. The dispute therefore reaches beyond operations into transferability and property valuation. The key distinction is which properties retain access to STR revenue after a sale.

Quick Facts

  • Current registration fee: $100.
  • Required responsible-person response time: 45 minutes.
  • Proposed license cap: 850 licenses.

Data from sources listed below.

But the draft future is where the story gets interesting.

That future has a cap: 850 licenses.

That future has scarcity.

That future has nontransferability.

That future has lotteries.

And lotteries, in American local government, are usually what happen when a town wants to say, “We’re not banning this. We’re just deciding who gets the right to keep doing it.”

That’s the thing people keep missing. This is not a morality play about Airbnb. It’s a sorting mechanism.

Who gets grandfathered?

Who gets carved out?

Who gets called “commercial lodging” instead of “short-term rental”?

Who gets to keep monetizing a Stowe address, and who gets told the party ended one deed transfer ago?

Once you strip away the policy language, that’s the fight.

The resorts know it. Which is why they lobbied for exemptions. Condo owners know it. Which is why they’re pleading that their units were never meant to be year-round housing in the first place. Investors know it. Which is why they’re watching transferability language like traders watch the Fed.

And the town knows it, too.

Because this isn’t really about noise, parking, or lockboxes. Those are the respectable shoes local government wears to the meeting. This is about the collision between two business models:

Stowe as a community

Stowe as a yield product

And communities, unlike yield products, get cranky when the teacher, line cook, ski tech, and nurse all have to commute from somewhere cheaper.

So no, Stowe hasn’t banned STRs.

It’s doing something more sophisticated and more dangerous: it’s turning them into a controlled asset class.

That means the value of some properties may increasingly depend not just on bedrooms, views, and ski access — but on whether the town lets the next owner keep the revenue machine plugged in.

That’s not a zoning footnote. That’s a valuation issue.

The irony here is exquisite. For years, short-term-rental advocates argued these homes were just ordinary private property. And now everyone is discovering that once enough “ordinary private property” becomes part of a town’s housing crisis, local government starts treating it less like a private right and more like a regulated privilege.

Welcome to adulthood.

The town isn’t saying, “No more STRs.”

It’s saying, “We’re done pretending there’s no difference between a primary residence, a resort lodging unit, and a house whose Excel spreadsheet gets more use than its living room.”

That may be good policy. It may be bad policy. It may get softened, carved up, or lawyered into a more polite version of itself.

But whatever form it takes, let’s stop using the lazy headline.

Stowe is not banning STRs.

Stowe is deciding who gets to keep printing money from them.

What Should Buyers and Sellers Do With This Risk?

Buyers and sellers should treat the proposed 850-license cap and nontransferability rule as a property-specific underwriting issue before assigning value to STR income.

New England Landmark Realty can help buyers verify current registration status, evaluate the proposed license path, and separate durable property value from income that may depend on a future municipal decision.

Takeaway: Confirm the license path before pricing the income stream.

Sources

July 10, 2026

Stowe STR Ban? Not Yet. Where Things Stand on Short-Term Rentals in Stowe Right Now

Tony Walton's Full Article (Unedited)

If you’ve heard that Stowe has already banned short-term rentals, that’s not accurate. Not yet.

Quick Answer

No. As of July 10, 2026, Stowe allows registered short-term rentals. The town is considering an 850-license cap and other licensing rules, with potential final adoption on July 22, 2026.

As of July 10, 2026, Stowe still allows short-term rentals, but under a registration system that is steadily being pushed toward a much tighter licensing regime.

That distinction matters.

Right now, the town’s active public-facing STR policy is a registration ordinance, not a blanket ban. Owners or their agents must register each unit, pay a $100 fee per dwelling unit, designate a responsible person who can respond in person within 45 minutes if police or fire call, and provide the Stowe Fire Department with 24/7 emergency access through an approved lockbox or similar system. Existing registrations were due for renewal by April 30, 2026, and the town’s website says new STR registrations may still be submitted.

In plain English: short-term rentals are currently allowed, so long as they are registered and compliant.

Key Takeaways

Two-Sentence Summary

Stowe property owners, buyers, managers, and listing agents need a clear split between the ordinance in force and the tighter proposal under review. That split helps them evaluate compliance, transferability, underwriting, and resale risk before July 22, 2026.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • The operative system on July 10, 2026, is registration rather than a blanket prohibition.
  • Current compliance includes a per-unit fee, an in-person emergency responder, and round-the-clock fire-department access.
  • The proposed licensing model would limit most licenses to 850 and make most licenses nontransferable.

Quick Facts

  • Current registration fee: $100 per dwelling unit.
  • Required emergency-response window: 45 minutes.
  • Proposed license cap: 850 licenses.

Data from sources listed below.

But the town is clearly trying to go further.

That next phase has been in motion for months. In January, Vermont Public reported that Stowe officials were considering much stricter limits, including one of the most controversial ideas on the table: allowing current nonresident owners to continue renting their homes short-term, but preventing a new out-of-town buyer from using the same house as an STR after a sale.

That proposal lit up the town because it shifted the debate from safety and administration into something more fundamental: who gets to own property in Stowe, and what they’re allowed to do with it.

By May, the conversation had evolved into a more detailed license-and-cap model. According to the May 13, 2026 Selectboard discussion packet, the draft proposal would convert the STR registration system into a licensing system, make licenses contingent on a valid certificate of occupancy, remove commercial lodging establishments and condo hotels from the STR definition, exempt existing timeshares, make most licenses nontransferable, and impose a cap of 850 licenses.

The town’s own process shows that this is still moving. The June 24, 2026 Selectboard packet lists an STR Ordinance First Reading and recommends moving the ordinance ahead for public hearing purposes, with potential final adoption on July 22, 2026. That June draft proposed the 850-license cap would begin on September 15, 2026, and also outlined a lottery system for any new licenses that might become available under the cap.

That means the town has not yet fully crossed the line from registry to hard licensing cap — but it is very clearly walking toward it.

So where does that leave things today?

Today’s answer: STRs are legal in Stowe if they are registered.

The near-future answer: the town is trying to make them scarcer, less transferable, and more tightly managed.

This matters because the market consequences are very different depending on which regime ultimately sticks. A registration system mostly increases compliance costs and operational friction. A capped licensing system changes scarcity, underwriting, resale dynamics, and buyer appetite.

So if you own a Stowe STR, manage one, are underwriting one, or are marketing a property where STR use is part of the value story, the key date on the calendar isn’t in the past.

It’s July 22, 2026.

That’s when “people are talking about a ban” may finally become something more concrete — or may yet become something narrower, softer, or messier than either side wants.

How Should Buyers and Sellers Plan Around the Proposed Rules?

New England Landmark Realty can help Stowe buyers, sellers, and property owners evaluate current registration status and the proposed July 22, 2026 changes before relying on short-term-rental income or transferability.

Takeaway: Confirm the property’s current registration and model the proposed licensing rules before treating STR income as durable value.

Sources

July 9, 2026

Dogs Are Smarter Than Humans

 

My dog rarely barks at me, which gives his criticism enormous weight.

He is not one of those dogs who narrates every passing leaf. He does not scream at delivery trucks, passing cyclists, or the wind, though I suspect he has notes. He saves his voice for moments of true managerial failure: a late dinner, an insufficiently brisk walk, or the time I tried to put his harness on upside down and briefly became, in his eyes, a government experiment.

Most days, he runs the house like a German Olympic coach. Meals occur on schedule. Walks begin with urgency. I am expected to maintain posture, focus, and a basic understanding of leash geometry. If I pause to check my phone, he looks back with the cold disappointment of a man who has trained luge champions.

There are standards, most of them unwritten, all of them enforceable.

And yet this same creature, this compact household dictator with excellent hearing, is afraid of the coat rack by the front door.

Not wary. Not cautious. Afraid.

The coat rack has never moved, spoken, voted, or expressed an opinion about him. It stands there holding jackets, which, in a better society, would be enough. But to my dog, it is an antlered doorman from the underworld. A six-foot omen in scarves.

The ritual is elaborate. I reach for the leash. He becomes alert, heroic, ready to serve. Then I drift, accidentally or maliciously, toward the front door. He freezes. His ears retract. His eyes widen with the expression of someone who has just seen the coat rack again, despite several formal complaints.

Then comes the bark.

One bark.

Not frantic. Not loud. Administrative.

It means: You know the route.

So we reverse course. We pass through the kitchen, past the laundry room, into the garage, where he waits with the grave patience of an animal who has saved us both from certain retail furniture.

This is how I realized dogs are smarter than humans.

Not because they are always rational. Clearly, they are not. But because they do not confuse endurance with virtue.

A dog fears a coat rack. We leave through the garage.

That is not cowardice. That is logistics.

In summer, he will beg for a walk like a prisoner of conscience. He will pace. He will stare. He will sigh as if I have personally delayed parole.

Then we step outside.

He feels the heat.

He turns around.

Walk canceled.

No debate. No "getting our steps in." No heroic little podcast about resilience. He has reviewed July and found it unacceptable.

Meanwhile, I am standing there in shorts and optimism, holding a plastic bag like the junior member of a doomed expedition.

His goals are clear: eat, patrol, rest, be near the person, correct the person, avoid the coat rack.

I have no such discipline.

I own a calendar, which is essentially a list of future resentments. My dog owns a bed in three rooms and somehow uses all of them strategically. I answer emails from people who begin with "circling back." My dog circles twice, lies down, and has accomplished more.

The older I get, the more I suspect intelligence is not the ability to solve complicated problems. It is the ability to refuse unnecessary ones.

Dogs have boundaries. They understand rest. They greet joy without suspicion. Sometimes the correct response to danger is a single bark and a firm detour through the garage.

My dog will never run for office, despite having the temperament for it. He already controls the household, maintains a strict fitness program, and has reduced foreign policy to squirrels.

But he would never seek power.

He has seen what leadership does to a person.

Also, the podium might look like a coat rack.

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July 6, 2026

Vermont's Land Use Mess Just Got Messier. Here's Why You Should Care.

 

What You Need to Know

  • Act 181, passed in 2024 to reform Vermont's land use law, was partially repealed in May 2026 after rural landowner protests.
  • Congress passed a landmark housing bill with federal grants to help states implement housing reforms. Trump canceled the signing for political leverage.
  • Vermont now has fewer environmental protections but still-slow housing permitting—and no federal support to accelerate reform.

Vermont is caught in a trap of its own making.

On one side: a housing shortage so acute that Vermont needs 12,000+ more affordable homes, and rents keep climbing because supply is tight. Young people are leaving. Teachers can't afford to stay. Nurses are working two jobs just to pay rent.

On the other side: rural landowners who fought back against Act 181, saying state environmental rules threatened their property rights and land values. Hundreds protested at the Statehouse in March 2026. They won. The controversial parts of Act 181 were partially repealed in May.

So now Vermont has repealed environmental protections without actually speeding up housing development. The core Act 250 permitting process is still slow. Still complex. Still making projects financially unworkable before construction begins.

It's a mess. And it just got worse.

Because Congress passed a housing bill—the first major one in decades—that included federal grants specifically designed to help states implement housing reforms like the ones Vermont is struggling with. Trump killed the bill Tuesday. For political leverage on something completely unrelated.

Now Vermont has no federal support, no federal funding, no federal technical assistance.

Here's what actually happened.

Act 250, Vermont's 1970 land use law, is the core bottleneck. Any housing project over 25 units needs Act 250 approval. The review process takes 12-18 months. Add appeals, and developers are looking at 2-3 years. During that time, construction costs rise significantly a 30% increase—making projects that were viable on Day 1 financially impossible by the time approval arrives.

Act 181, passed in 2024 over Governor Scott's veto, tried to fix this with a tiered system:

Tier 1 (already-developed areas): Loosen Act 250 reviews, speed up housing approvals

Tier 2 (rural areas): Add new requirements (like a road rule for roads over 800 feet) to protect forest fragmentation

Tier 3 (sensitive ecosystems): Boost protections for headwater streams and habitat connectors

The theory: build more housing where it's already urban, protect the farmland and forests that define Vermont.

Rural landowners hated the environmental parts. They argued environmental rules would devalue their land and prevent future development in smaller towns. Beginning in March 2026, they organized protests. In May 2026, the Vermont Legislature—both chambers—voted to partially repeal Act 181, removing Tier 2 (the road rule) and Tier 3 (environmental protections). The Senate vote was 28-2.

So Vermont now has:

The housing-friendly parts of Act 181 (Tier 1) in place. The environmental protections stripped away (Tier 2 & 3 gone). But the core Act 250 permitting process? Still slow. Still complex.

Vermont repealed environmental rules without actually accelerating housing approval. It's the worst possible outcome: fewer environmental protections, but no faster development.

What the federal bill actually offered.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress passed with veto-proof majorities, included $200 million in annual competitive grants for local governments that demonstrate measurable increases in housing supply through "streamlined permitting, density bonuses, and zoning changes."

Vermont towns could have competed for that money and used it to hire permitting staff, modernize their Act 250 review processes, and implement the technical changes Act 181 required.

The bill also included grants for planning assistance—the unglamorous, expensive work of actually implementing reforms.

Most Vermont towns lack the budget to do this independently. Federal grants would have bridged that gap.

Why this matters right now.

Trump was scheduled to sign the housing bill. Forty-eight hours before the signing ceremony, he canceled it. According to reporting, Trump demanded Congress pass his SAVE Act (citizenship verification) first, using the housing bill as leverage.

Congress has veto-proof majorities. They could override him. Instead, the bill sits unsigned. Trump has not indicated when or whether he will sign it.

Meanwhile, Vermont's Act 181 partial repeal just became law in May 2026.

Vermont now has: a partially reformed (and now partially repealed) state land use system. No federal funding to implement the reforms that remain. No federal technical support. No federal grants to help towns accelerate their permitting processes.

The bill that could have provided all three is in political limbo.

What this actually costs.

Here's the likely scenario: A developer in Washington County looks at the Act 250 timeline. Looks at construction cost inflation during a 2-3 year approval process. Does the math. The project becomes unviable.

She moves to a state with faster permitting.

That housing unit doesn't get built. Another one after that. The shortage widens.

Rents climb because supply is tight. Young families get priced out. Teachers working in Vermont schools can't afford to live in Vermont communities. Nurses working at Central Vermont Medical Center live an hour away and commute.

This is mechanical, not emotional. Just the math of supply and demand.

And it was preventable. Vermont was ready to implement housing reforms. Needed federal funding to do it properly. Congress was about to provide it.

Now it's not.

Why this is actually interesting.

This isn't a simple left-right problem. It's Vermont vs. Itself.

Governor Scott (Republican) vetoed Act 181 in 2024, calling it a "conservation bill" that wouldn't fix housing. Democrats overrode him. Rural Republicans then organized massive protests against the environmental protections. Democrats, facing rural voter anger, repealed those protections.

Now Scott is saying the Legislature isn't taking housing seriously.

The Legislature tried to balance growth and conservation. Faced political pressure. Repealed the environmental parts while keeping the housing-friendly parts. Except the housing parts don't work without actual permitting reform and resources to implement it.

Federal grants would have given them that runway. Would have let them say to rural voters: "We're protecting forests AND speeding housing, and we have federal funding to do it right."

Instead, Vermont got: fewer environmental protections, but still-slow housing permitting.

It's the outcome nobody wanted.

The thing Vermonters need to understand.

This isn't about politics. It's about capacity.

Vermont was trying to solve a genuinely hard problem (growth vs. conservation). Had a plan (Act 181). Faced political pressure and modified it. Still needed resources to implement what remained.

Federal government was about to provide those resources.

Now it's not.

So Vermont is left trying to solve a complex, expensive problem—permitting reform, housing development, conservation—with no external support, no federal funding, and no federal technical assistance.

It's harder now. More expensive. Slower.

Your neighbor pays the price.

Sources

  1. Vermont Housing Shortage: National Low-Income Housing Coalition, "2026 Vermont Housing Profile" (2026)
  2. Act 181 Passed Over Governor's Veto: Vermont Public, "Phil Scott Vetoes Bill That Would Make Sweeping Changes to Act 250" (June 13, 2024)
  3. Act 181 Structure (Tier System): Vermont Department of Housing and Community Development, "Act 181: Modernizing Land Use Review"
  4. March 2026 Act 181 Protests: VTDigger, "Hundreds Protest Act 181 on Statehouse Steps" (March 24, 2026)
  5. May 2026 Partial Repeal (S.325): VTDigger, "Partial Repeal of Vermont's Land-Use Law Act 181 Heads to Gov. Phil Scott's Desk" (May 27, 2026); Vermont Senate vote 28-2
  6. Act 250 Permitting Timelines: VTDigger, "Vermont Loosened Act 250 Rules for Housing. Here's Where Developers Are Responding." (December 11, 2024)
  7. Construction Cost Inflation During Permitting: VTDigger op-ed by Kathy Beyer, "The Permit Appeal Process Has Delayed the Start of Construction by at Least Two Years" (2026)
  8. 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Details: Bipartisan Policy Center, "What's in the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act?"
  9. Federal Housing Bill Passage: PBS NewsHour, "What's in the Housing Affordability Bill That Trump Refused to Sign" (2026)
  10. Trump Cancels Housing Bill Signing: BBC News, "Trump Cancels Signing of Landmark Bill Aimed at Lowering Housing Costs" (2026); Wall Street Journal, "Trump's Meeting With Senators Turns Fiery Over Iran War" (2026); ABC News coverage (2026)
  11. Congress Passes Housing Bill With Veto-Proof Majorities: PBS, BBC, ABC News, Axios reporting (June 2026)

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July 3, 2026

Opening Day and the Sacred New England Lie

Harris Vexley's Full Article (Unedited)

 

Every baseball season begins with the same sacred New England lie: this year will be different.

Quick Answer

Red Sox fans experience cyclical hope because Opening Day arrives before evidence. The season hasn't yet hardened into standings, the bullpen hasn't yet failed, and four generations of inherited optimism remain intact. By June, hope becomes educational.

We say it in March, when the snow is still retreating in dirty, humiliated piles and the Red Sox have not yet had the opportunity to harm us in a statistically meaningful way. The grass is green. The caps are clean. The broadcasters sound rested. Even the bullpen appears, from a distance, to be a professional organization.

This is the dangerous part.

Hope, in baseball, is not a feeling. It is a recurring medical condition.

I know this because I am from Vermont, where baseball is not so much watched as inherited. My great-grandfather was a Red Sox fan. My grandfather was a Red Sox fan. My father was a Red Sox fan. By the time I arrived, the family had already lost several decades, most of its emotional elasticity, and any reasonable expectation of late-inning competence.

Still, every Opening Day, we believed.

My great-grandfather believed by the radio, which hissed and crackled like it was trying to warn him. My grandfather believed through the newspaper box scores, circling batting averages with the tenderness of a man annotating scripture. My father believed from a recliner, issuing small tactical recommendations to men in Boston who could not hear him and, frankly, had their own problems.

I believe through my phone, which is worse.

A push notification has no bedside manner. It simply appears and says, "Three-run homer allowed," as if notifying me that the barn has burned down but the chickens remain optimistic.

Opening Day Harris is always a disgraceful romantic.

Opening Day Harris says things like, "I like the shape of this team."

June Harris replies, "This team has the shape of a folding chair."

Opening Day Harris says, "The rotation looks promising."

June Harris says, "The rotation appears to be a witness protection program for earned runs."

Opening Day Harris says, "The young players just need time."

June Harris says, "I would prefer they stop learning in public."

As of this week, the Red Sox are 27–39 and last in the American League East, which is less a record than a weather report: scattered concern, heavy bullpen, chance of muttering after dinner.

And yet I am not angry.

Anger is too simple. Red Sox fandom, properly practiced, requires a more artisanal suffering. A slow-roasted disappointment. The kind that pairs well with black coffee, porch silence, and saying, "Long season," in the tone of a man describing a minor roof leak that has become sentient.

Each generation of Vexley men had its own phrase for baseball despair.

My great-grandfather said, "Long season."

My grandfather said, "Plenty of games left."

My father said, "They'll get hot."

I say, "I have muted the app for my health."

This is progress, technically.

Baseball is the only sport patient enough to ruin you politely. Football kicks in the door. Basketball runs you breathless. Hockey crashes through the boards with dental consequences. But baseball sits beside you for three hours and gradually convinces you that a walk, a bloop single, and a throwing error constitute a philosophical event.

This is why we love it.

Also, because we are not well.

The great trick of Opening Day is that it arrives before evidence. Before the standings harden. Before the bullpen begins entering from right field with the energy of substitute teachers during a fire drill. Before someone says, "He's day-to-day," and you realize, with horror, that so are you.

On Opening Day, everyone is undefeated.

By June, some of us have become educational institutions.

Still, I will watch.

I will sit with my coffee, or my sandwich, or my inherited anxiety, and I will listen for the old rhythms. The crack of the bat. The murmur of the crowd. The announcer explaining that the tying run is on deck, which is baseball's way of offering emotional credit at a dangerous interest rate.

I will remember my father, who became his father, who became his father, all of them staring toward Boston with the grim patience of men waiting for a cow to apologize.

And next spring, I will believe again.

Not because I am foolish.

Because baseball is the only institution in America that can break your heart slowly enough to call it tradition.

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July 2, 2026

Iran Conflict, Inflation Spike, and Your Mortgage Rate Window in Central Vermont

 

This morning, the inflation data landed: May's CPI came in at 4.2%—the highest level since April 2023. The bond market sold off. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked as peace talks between Iran and the U.S. showed fresh signs of failure. WTI crude is trading around $89 per barrel, elevated and volatile.

Here's the question nobody wants to ask: what if this doesn't end in the next four months?

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • Today's 4.2% inflation spike (highest since April 2023) plus rising oil prices signal sticky inflation ahead—the Fed won't be cutting rates.
  • If the Iran conflict extends through November, mortgage rates could push toward 7% or beyond, thinning the move-up buyer pool and compressing inventory further.
  • Central Vermont's market is holding now, but the window to sell before rates spike is closing—June and July are your best months.

Quick Facts

  • May 2026 CPI: 4.2% (released June 10); WTI crude oil: ~$89/barrel; mortgage rates: 6.66%-6.75%
  • Upside rate risk if conflict continues: +0.375% to +0.435%, pushing rates toward 7.1%-7.2%
  • Fed's next meeting: June 16-17 (6 days away); expect "hold steady" guidance, not rate cuts

The Longer This Lasts, The Worse It Gets for Sellers

If the conflict stretches through summer and into fall—through the midterms in November—energy prices stay elevated. Inflation stays sticky. Today's 4.2% print is proof that inflation isn't cooling as the Fed hoped. And mortgage rates, currently hovering around 6.66%-6.75%, face genuine upside risk of another 0.375% to 0.435%.

That's not catastrophe. It's math. And it's happening in real time.

What today's inflation data actually signals

The Fed has been holding rates steady, betting that inflation would cool on its own. Today's number proves that strategy isn't working. Inflation spiked from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May. That's not noise. That's a reversal.

The culprit? Energy prices. Oil has been volatile all year because of the Iran conflict. Every time peace talks break down—like they're doing right now—oil spikes. Every oil spike feeds back into inflation. And every inflation spike means the Fed has to stay hawkish.

The Fed's next meeting is June 16-17, just six days away. When they see today's 4.2% print combined with crude oil at $89, expect them to signal: "We're staying put. Rates aren't coming down anytime soon."

What that means for your timing

Central Vermont's market is holding. Inventory is tight. Prices are stable. Move-up buyers with equity are still moving, albeit more carefully than they were six months ago.

But here's what changes if rates tick another 0.375%:

A buyer pre-approved at $650,000 at 6.75% doesn't qualify at $650,000 at 7.125%. The math shifts. Their buying power drops. They either reduce their offer by $30,000-$40,000, or they step out of the market entirely.

Multiply that across dozens of buyers in the move-up segment, and suddenly the inventory that's tight becomes constrained. The market that's been holding starts to slow.

The base case vs. the risk case

Logan Mohtashami's 2026 forecast was straightforward: mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%, with the upper end (6.375%-6.75%) most likely if labor data stayed firm and inflation remained sticky.

We're in the upper range. That's the base case. It's workable.

But today's inflation print plus ongoing Iran tensions point toward the risk case: rates could push toward 7% or slightly beyond. That's the upside risk. And it just got more real.

What an election result won't change

Polling suggests Democrats have a reasonable chance of flipping the House in November. If that happens—or if they gain seats in the Senate—markets might briefly reprice. But here's what actually matters for rates: it won't change the trajectory.

Why? Because the Iran conflict doesn't care about U.S. elections. It runs through November regardless. Energy prices stay elevated. Inflation stays sticky. Today's 4.2% print shows us that inflation isn't self-correcting—it's still climbing.

The Fed's hawkish stance—which is already baked in—doesn't shift because of a change in Congressional leadership.

In a divided government scenario (most likely: Democratic House, Republican Senate), you don't get major fiscal changes that would loosen monetary policy. You get gridlock, which means the Fed stays the course. Rates stay higher for longer.

If somehow Democrats sweep both chambers, you might get fiscal stimulus, which could actually keep inflation higher, not lower. More stimulus + sticky inflation = Fed stays even more hawkish.

So betting on an election outcome to move the rate needle is a mistake. The structural headwinds—today's inflation spike, elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty—are bigger than any political outcome in November.

Why this matters for Vermont sellers right now

You have clarity on your market today. You know what rates are. You know what buyers are willing to pay. You know the seasonal momentum is still in your favor—June and July are still strong months.

But if rates climb another quarter point in August—and today's inflation print makes that more likely—that clarity evaporates. The buyer who was comfortable at $700,000 in July might not be comfortable at $700,000 in September. The move-up seller who was planning a September listing suddenly realizes they should have listed in June.

The timeline

The Fed's next meeting is June 16-17. They'll see today's 4.2% inflation print and elevated oil prices. Expect cautious language about "data dependency" and "remaining vigilant." That caution translates to: rates probably don't come down soon. They might even go up.

Summer goes into fall. The midterms are in November. If the conflict is still unresolved by then—and peace talks are already faltering—that's 10+ months of elevated energy prices and sticky inflation. That's a long time for buyers to feel uncertain about rates.

Use your window now. The runway between "rates are stable at current levels" and "rates have climbed another 0.375%" just got shorter.

What to do

For sellers: List decisively. Price realistically. Close fast. Today's inflation data is a signal that the Fed won't be cutting rates. The market will hold through summer, but don't count on fall.

For move-up sellers: Solve your buyer problem before you create your seller problem. Get clear on where you're going before you list where you are. Today's rate environment is the best you're going to see for a while.

For buyers: Expand your options. Use every tool. Know your actual numbers. Move when conditions are clear. Waiting for rates to fall isn't a strategy anymore. Today's inflation print proves that.

Vermont's market is resilient. But resilience doesn't mean complacency. It means moving strategically inside the conditions you have, not waiting for conditions to improve—whether that's hoping rates will fall or betting on an election outcome that won't change the fundamental math.

The Iran conflict is still escalating. Oil prices are still elevated. Inflation just spiked. And the Fed's next move is almost certainly "hold steady," not "cut rates."

Act accordingly.

Where to Go Next

Don't Wait for the Market to Change

Today's inflation spike and rising oil prices signal that rates aren't coming down anytime soon. If you're thinking about selling, the window to move before rates climb further is closing. Central Vermont's market is holding now, but the Fed's June 16-17 meeting could shift the outlook. Get clear on your strategy. Know your numbers. Move decisively.

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July 1, 2026

The Thaw Nobody's Selling Tickets To

Tony Walton's Full Article (Unedited)

 

Vermont real estate exhales. Here's what the numbers, the Statehouse, and 24,000 missing homes are trying to tell us.

Quick Answer

Vermont real estate in 2026 is less frantic but not cheaper: inventory is up 11.7%, homes sit longer, and prices still rise because the state remains structurally short on housing.

For four years, Vermont real estate behaved like a Soho House membership line. Irrational. Performative. Rigged against everyone who showed up.

Inventory was a rumor. Bidding wars were a personality trait. Buyers walked into open houses the way people walk into the DMV — braced for indignity.

That market is dead. Long live the market.

The Numbers Are Finally Telling the Truth

Statewide inventory is up 11.7% year-over-year. Median days on market: roughly 91. Sellers are taking home 96.3 cents on the dollar — not 105, not 110. Above-list sales have collapsed from nearly 20% to 13.7%.

And yet the statewide median price still climbed to about $412,200. Waterbury's average home value sits at $550,330, up 1.8% year-over-year. Chittenden County crossed $500K in most segments and never looked back.

"This is the first spring market since 2019 that actually feels like a negotiation between adults."

Here's the paradox nobody at the cocktail party can explain: How do prices keep rising while inventory rises?

Because Vermont isn't a real estate market. It's a supply deficit wearing a real estate market's clothes.

We still have only about 2.9 months of supply. A balanced market needs four to six. We've moved from frozen to functioning. We have not moved to fair.

Key Takeaways

Two-Sentence Summary

This page is for buyers, sellers, and developers who need a Vermont market read grounded in current numbers, not pandemic-era memory. Tony Walton's view is simple: negotiating room is back, prices are still supported, and the shortage underneath the market is still doing the heavy lifting.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • Vermont inventory is up 11.7%, but 2.9 months of supply is still a shortage, not balance.
  • Act 181 created a real downtown and village-center development window, but January 2027 is now a deadline, not a theory.
  • Equity-rich sellers and patient equity buyers make a statewide crash unlikely.

Quick Facts

  • Inventory: +11.7% year-over-year statewide.
  • Median price: about $412,200 statewide.
  • Transfer tax on a $500,000 second home: about $18,100.

Data from sources listed below.

The Equity Fortress

Eighty-seven percent of mortgaged Vermont homeowners are equity-rich. Among the highest rates in America.

Translation: there are no panic sellers. The 2008 playbook — distressed listings, foreclosure cascades, forced price discovery — does not apply here. There is no kindling.

Vermont owners can wait out a bad rate cycle the way Warren Buffett waits out a bad quarter. Patiently. Sipping something local.

That is why the "crash is coming" YouTubers keep getting Vermont wrong. They are pricing a market that doesn't exist on a topography they've never walked.

The Statehouse Just Walked Back the Walk-Back

This is the story most brokers aren't tracking. They should be.

June 2024: Lawmakers override Governor Scott's veto and pass H.687 — known as Act 181 — the largest Act 250 reform in fifty years. It exempts housing in Vermont's 24 designated downtowns from Act 250 review through January 2027. It exempts projects of up to 50 units around dozens of designated village centers.

It also introduces a two-tier Property Transfer Tax. The general rate stays at 1.25%. But second homes and non-principal residences get hit at 3.4%.

The Math on a $500,000 Home

Vermont resident, principal residence ~$5,410
Nonresident, second-home buyer ~$18,100

Call it what it is — the "Welcome to Vermont" tax. The Legislature finally figured out that the Audi from Greenwich could pay a little more on the way in.

Then, on May 21, 2026, the Joint Committee of Conference on S.325 — now Act 152 — voted to repeal Act 181's Tier 3 jurisdiction and the controversial "Road Rule." The two pieces environmentalists won and developers hated.

But — and read this carefully — the same committee stripped out the Senate-passed pro-housing reforms that would have:

  • Extended the interim Act 250 housing exemptions to 2030
  • Removed arbitrary parcel-size constraints
  • Expanded interim exemptions to more rural communities
  • Expanded the Priority Housing Project for mixed-income and affordable development
"In the midst of a deep housing affordability crisis, this joint committee cast aside a series of thoughtful, reasonable pro-housing changes." — Alex Farrell, Commissioner, Vermont Department of Housing and Community Development

The takeaway for anyone holding a developable parcel near a designated downtown — Waterbury, Stowe Village, Montpelier, Burlington: the calendar is now the asset. The regulatory window is real. It has a January 2027 expiration sticker. The Legislature just signaled, clearly, that the door narrows.

The 24,000-Unit Hole

Vermont is short roughly 24,000 housing units. Some studies put the number closer to 30,000 or 40,000.

Since 2001, Vermont median home prices have risen 148%. Median household income has risen 72%.

That spread is not a market quirk. It's a generational sorting machine. It picks winners from a finite pool of equity migrants out of Boston, New York, and the Bay Area. It locks out almost everyone whose paycheck originates inside the state.

"Vermont isn't unaffordable because of greed. It's unaffordable because we won't build."

The press releases keep dancing around it. The math doesn't.

The Buyer Has Quietly Changed

The 2021 Vermont buyer was a panicked Brooklynite with a Zoom job and a Subaru.

The 2026 buyer is a more deliberate animal. Remote workers who already moved, stayed, and are now trading up. Retirees liquidating coastal equity. Second-home buyers — now paying the 3.4% tax and getting choosier about what's worth it. Patient equity migrants who waited out the bidding wars and are finally pulling triggers.

These buyers are less rate-sensitive than first-timers. They're not financing the whole purchase. They're financing the tail.

That is why 6%-plus rates haven't crushed Vermont the way the textbooks say they should. The textbooks assume buyers are stretched. Ours, in large part, aren't.

The Bifurcation Nobody Talks About at Closings

The market is splitting into two markets. The gap is widening every quarter.

WINNING
  • Move-in ready homes in walkable villages
  • Sub-$500K entry-level homes
  • Broadband, new septic, updated mechanicals
  • Chittenden County core
  • Stowe / Waterbury village corridor
LOSING
  • Rural fixers with deferred maintenance
  • Overpriced second-home inventory
  • No broadband, failing septic, oil heat
  • Far-flung properties without amenities
  • Aspirationally priced anything

Condition and presentation now matter more than they did in 2022. A lot more.

The Honest Read

Buyers: this is the best negotiating window since 2019. It is also seasonal, and probably temporary. Spring competition will compress it. Move while the room exists.

Sellers: 2021 isn't coming back. Price to the comp, stage to the buyer, and stop arguing with the market. Aspirational pricing in 2026 just buys you 91 days of carrying costs and a price cut anyway.

Developers: you have until January 2027 to break ground inside a designated downtown without an Act 250 permit. After that, the Legislature has signaled, clearly, that the door narrows. Mud season ends. So does this window.

Vermonters: pay attention to who is getting elected this November. The next Legislature decides whether we solve our housing problem or just keep writing essays about it. (Yes, I see the irony.)

Vermont's market isn't correcting. It's exhaling. The pandemic frenzy is over. The structural shortage is not.

Plan from the math

Buyers, sellers, and developers in Central Vermont have more room than they did a year ago, but the underlying shortage still defines the market. Run your numbers against this market — not last year's.

Where to Go Next