Vermont Buyers Finally Have More Room — But Prices Aren't Falling

By The Numbers Guy • New England Landmark Realty • Spring 2026 Vermont Market Analysis

Vermont home prices are still climbing, and buyers still have more negotiating room than they've had in years. Both things are true at the same time.

Inventory across Vermont rose 11.7% year-over-year. Homes are now sitting a median of 91 days. Sellers are averaging 96.3 cents on the dollar instead of routinely getting above asking price. Yet statewide median prices still climbed to roughly $412,200.

If you're buying, the market finally has some breathing room. If you're selling, pricing discipline suddenly matters again. Either way, this is the first spring market since before the pandemic that actually feels negotiable.

What the Numbers Actually Say

The headline number is inventory. Vermont active listings rose 11.7% year-over-year, the largest meaningful inventory gain the state has seen in several years.

That matters because Vermont spent much of the post-pandemic cycle operating in an artificially frozen market. Buyers weren't competing against a healthy supply of homes. They were competing over scarcity itself.

Today, the market looks different — but not dramatically different. Vermont still has only about 2.9 months of supply. A balanced market typically needs 4–6 months. So while conditions have improved for buyers, this is not a buyer's market.

It's a disciplined seller's market with better manners.

Median days on market have stretched to roughly 91 days. Sellers are averaging about 96.3% of asking price. And the percentage of homes selling above list price has fallen to 13.7%, down from nearly 20% one year ago.

That's a real shift in negotiating leverage.

At the same time, prices continue moving higher. Vermont's statewide median home price now sits near $412,200, while Chittenden County has crossed the $500,000 threshold in many segments.

The deeper story sits underneath all of it. Since 2001, Vermont median home prices have risen roughly 148%, while median household income has risen only about 72%. That gap explains almost everything happening in this market right now.

This is not a market waiting for a dramatic correction. It's a market reflecting a long-term supply deficit that Vermont still hasn't solved.

Why Prices Are Still Rising When Inventory Is Also Rising

Most people hear "inventory is rising" and assume prices should be falling.

In a normal housing cycle, maybe. Vermont isn't operating in a normal housing cycle.

The first reason is simple: inventory is rising from an extremely low base. An 11.7% increase sounds large until you remember how starved the market became after 2020.

More homes than last year still means fewer homes than a functioning market actually needs.

Second, Vermont homeowners are unusually equity-rich. More than 87% of mortgaged Vermont homeowners are considered equity rich — among the highest rates in the country. That matters because financially stressed sellers cut prices aggressively. Equity-rich sellers don't have to.

Most Vermont owners can wait.

Third, the structural shortage remains enormous. Various housing studies now estimate Vermont remains short roughly 24,000 housing units statewide. Rising inventory relieves pressure around the edges. It doesn't erase the shortage.

And finally, Vermont attracts a different buyer profile than many markets.

A significant portion of demand still comes from remote workers, retirees, second-home buyers, and equity migrants from Boston and New York. These are buyers actively choosing Vermont. They're often less rate-sensitive than traditional first-time buyers stretching to qualify.

That's why inventory can rise while prices still climb modestly at the same time.

The market isn't overheating anymore. But it also isn't collapsing under its own weight.

What This Means If You're Buying Now

For buyers, the negotiating window is real.

A year or two ago, many Vermont buyers felt like they were bidding against panic itself. Today, homes are sitting longer, sellers are absorbing carrying costs, and negotiations have become more normal again.

96.3 cents on the dollar is meaningful. So is the decline in above-list sales from nearly 20% down to 13.7%.

That doesn't mean every seller is negotiable. Well-priced homes in strong locations still move quickly. But buyers finally have the ability to ask harder questions, compare more options, and avoid making instant emotional decisions.

The honest caution is this: Vermont still isn't cheap, and prices are still rising.

Waiting for a dramatic crash may prove frustrating because the underlying supply shortage remains intact. Vermont simply has not built enough housing to create sustained downward pricing pressure.

What I would tell buyers right now is straightforward.

If your financing is solid and you already know your target towns, this is probably the best negotiating environment you've seen in several years. Engage now while inventory is improving and before peak spring competition compresses the window again.

If you're still uncertain about budget, geography, commute realities, or renovation tolerance, use this period to get precise instead of rushing.

What This Means If You're Selling Now

For sellers, the market still works in your favor — just not automatically.

The biggest mistake I'm seeing right now is sellers pricing from memory instead of current conditions.

A market averaging 96.3% of asking price is not rewarding aspirational pricing the way 2021 and 2022 did. Sellers who start too high are often sitting for 91 days and reducing later anyway.

That's not pessimism. That's math.

Where sellers still hold strong leverage is in move-in-ready homes located in supply-constrained towns. Entry-level and first-time buyer price points remain competitive because inventory there is still extremely thin.

Where leverage has softened is more obvious now too.

Overpriced second-home inventory. Rural properties with outdated infrastructure. Homes lacking broadband, septic upgrades, or major deferred maintenance. Buyers have enough options again to become selective.

Condition matters more now. Presentation matters more now. Pricing strategy matters a lot more now.

The One Question Worth Asking

So where does this go over the next 6–12 months?

My read is fairly simple.

Inventory will probably continue rising modestly. But absent a major economic shock, Vermont is unlikely to reach true balance anytime soon.

Prices likely continue climbing too — just slowly. Probably somewhere in the low single digits rather than the explosive gains of the pandemic years.

And the negotiating window buyers are seeing right now? That's real. But it's also seasonal and temporary. As more buyers re-enter the market through late spring and summer, some of that flexibility compresses again.

Mortgage rates matter around the margins. Vermont's structural housing shortage matters at the core.

If a client were sitting across my desk today, I'd probably tell them the same thing whether they were buying or selling:

This finally feels like a functioning market again. Not easy. Not cheap. But functional. And compared to where Vermont has been the last several years, that's a meaningful shift.

Sources: Redfin, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Vermont Housing Finance Agency (VHFA), National Association of Realtors (NAR), Census housing and income trend data, New England Landmark Realty market observations.