How Vermont's Housing Crisis Could Shape the State's Future—and What We Can Do About It
1. The Tipping Point—Is Vermont Becoming a Place Only the Wealthy Can Afford?
Vermont is at a crossroads. If housing prices keep climbing and policies don’t change, Vermont won’t be a home—it’ll be a luxury destination.
The contradiction:
- Vermont talks about affordability, but housing policy favors high-end development.
- Politicians debate solutions, but working-class Vermonters are already being priced out.
- Labor shortages hurt businesses, but zoning laws and NIMBY opposition kill every proposed workforce housing project.
The reality check:
- Vermont's median home price has jumped over 50% in just five years.
- Out-of-state buyers, investors, and short-term rentals are reducing supply.
- Zoning laws and construction costs make building mid-priced homes nearly impossible.
💡 If we don't act now, Vermont's most desirable towns will be filled with empty homes in the off-season—while the people who keep the state running won't be able to live here.
2. The Warning Signs: Vermont's Affordability Crisis Is Accelerating
1. Vermont Home Prices Are Rising Too Fast for Locals to Keep Up
- The median home price in Vermont is now over $400,000—pricing out entire generations.
- The state isn't building enough homes at a mid-range price, forcing middle-income families into a brutal rental market.
Example: Middlebury's "Starter Homes" Now Cost $450K+
- A young teacher and a nurse—both earning above the Vermont median income—searched for a home in Middlebury.
- Every "starter home" they found was over $450,000, far exceeding their budget.
- They finally gave up and moved to New Hampshire, where similar homes cost $100K less.
The Reality:
- Who's building mid-priced homes for middle-class families? Almost no one.
- Builders are either focused on luxury homes (for profit) or subsidized housing (for tax credits), leaving the middle class with nothing.
Smart Fix:
- Expand Vermont's "Missing Middle" Home Program, which incentivizes builders to construct modest, well-designed homes.
- Reduce regulatory and permitting barriers for small and mid-sized developers to enter the market.
2. Out-of-State Buyers & Investors Are Driving Up Prices
- Vermont already taxes second homes at a higher rate, but this hasn't slowed investor interest.
- With a low housing supply, cash-rich Boston and New York buyers quickly outbid locals.
Example: Stowe's Housing Takeover by Second-Home Buyers
- Over 25% of homes in Stowe are now second homes—meaning they sit empty for most of the year.
- The median home price in Stowe is now over $750,000, making it nearly impossible for local workers to live there.
- Employers in town can't find workers because the workforce can't afford to stay.
The Reality:
- Vermont's existing second-home tax isn't enough to curb speculation.
- Investors and second-home buyers still see Vermont real estate as a safe bet.
Smart Fix:
- Increase taxes on vacant second homes that sit unused for most of the year.
- Require short-term rental owners to offer long-term rentals for a portion of the year before listing properties on Airbnb.
3. Short-Term Rentals Are Crushing Vermont's Housing Market
- Vermont has thousands of homes converted into Airbnbs, further reducing the long-term rental supply.
- Right now, Vermont has no consistent, statewide Airbnb regulations—allowing investors to buy up homes purely for short-term profits.
Example: Killington's Airbnb Takeover
- Killington is one of Vermont's top tourist destinations, but the explosion of short-term rentals has made long-term rentals almost impossible to find.
- Seasonal workers and locals are forced to live in motels or commute long distances because Airbnb dominate the market.
The Reality:
- Some Vermont towns have implemented Airbnb restrictions, but many haven't addressed the scale of the problem.
- Vermont needs a statewide policy instead of letting each town make its own rules.
Smart Fix:
- Define "long-term rental" as at least six months per year—not just 60 or 90 days.
- Limit Airbnb licenses per town to prevent full neighborhoods from turning into short-term rentals.
3. What Vermont Could Look Like in 2035 If We Don't Act Now
Without intervention, Vermont will become:
A retirement destination—but too expensive for Vermonters to retire here.
A second-home state—with empty houses in the off-season.
An employer's nightmare—where jobs go unfilled because workers can't afford to live nearby.
But if we invest in the right solutions, Vermont can be:
A place where locals can afford to live, work, and raise families.
A state that balances growth with smart planning.
A destination that thrives year-round—not just for second-home owners.
4. Take Action: How We Keep Vermont Livable for Future Generations
1. Support "Missing Middle" Housing Incentives
- Vermont needs duplexes, triplexes, and townhouses built for working families.
2. Demand Stronger Airbnb & Second-Home Regulations
- Vermont's current tax policies aren't slowing speculation. We need caps on short-term rentals and stricter second-home rules.
3. Push for More Mid-Range Housing Construction
- The state should incentivize builders to focus on $250K-$400K homes, not just luxury builds or subsidized housing.
4. Share This Article & Start the Conversation
- If Vermont's leaders don't hear from residents, they'll keep catering to wealthy outsiders instead of working Vermonters.
5. About the Author
Tony Walton is a Vermont-based real estate professional with deep roots in the community and a passion for keeping the state livable for future generations. Whether you're buying, selling, or want to talk about Vermont's housing future, reach out at tonywalton@nelandmark.com.
Vermont's future isn't set in stone. If we fail to fix our housing and infrastructure policies, Vermont will become a playground for the rich. If we act now, we can keep Vermont livable for everyone.
Next Week: The Role of Private Developers in Solving Vermont's Housing Crisis—Friend or Foe?
