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Quick Answer

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% in September 2026 to 66.0, the lowest reading in the index's history, and was down 11.3% from a year earlier. Economists had expected a 0.5% dip. The Northeast fell least, down 4.2%. Prices are holding: the national median rose 1.3% from a year ago.

A Record Low for Signed Contracts

Americans signed fewer contracts to buy homes in September than in any month since the National Association of Realtors started counting in 2001.

NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% from August, to 66.0, and was down 11.3% from a year earlier. Economists polled by Reuters expected a 0.5% dip. HousingWire called it the lowest reading in the history of the index.

Pending sales count signed contracts, not closings. That makes them the earliest read on where closed sales are headed over the next month or two.

Why Contracts Stalled

Rates. Freddie Mac's 30-year average climbed to 7.40% in early October, the highest since November 2023. "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. He added: "Buyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favorably."

Rates have eased a little since. Freddie Mac put the 30-year at 7.32% on October 22. By the time you read this, the Federal Reserve will have announced its October 28 decision. In a Reuters poll taken October 16 to 20, 94 of 100 economists expected a hold, and all 100 expected an increase in December.

Prices Are Not Breaking

Fewer contracts have not meant falling prices. The national median existing-home price was $417,500 in September, up 1.3% from a year earlier. In the Northeast it was $523,600, up 4.7%. Yun credits a short supply of distressed sales: "the limited number of distressed properties is ensuring steady home prices."

Regionally, the West fell hardest, with contracts down 9.2% in a month. The Northeast fell least, down 4.2%, and 9.4% from a year earlier.

The Vermont Translation

Central Vermont's latest closed sales still look strong. Redfin shows 81 Washington County homes sold in September, up from 62 a year earlier, at a median of $444,006. Most of those contracts were likely signed in July and August, when rates were under 7%. The national contract slump is the better preview of this winter.

Statewide, Vermont had about five months of supply in September, per Redfin. Nationally, NAR reported 4.8. In a balanced market, well-priced homes sell and overpriced ones wait.

What to Do

If you are buying, this is the season to negotiate. Fewer signed contracts means less competition from other buyers and room to ask for a full inspection period and a seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown. Get quotes from at least three lenders.

If you are selling, waiting for lower rates is what everyone else is doing. Price to today's buyer, not to the summer comps, and make the home easy to say yes to.

Want the numbers for your town? Get the Vermont Real Estate Market Report, or call me at 802-233-4107.

Get the Vermont Real Estate Market Report or call Tony at 802-233-4107.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are pending home sales?

Pending home sales count signed purchase contracts that have not closed yet. Because most contracts close within one to two months, they are an early read on where closed sales are headed.

How much did pending home sales fall in September 2026?

NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% from August to 66.0, and 11.3% from a year earlier. It was the lowest reading since the index began in 2001.

Are home prices falling in the Northeast?

No. The Northeast median existing-home price was $523,600 in September 2026, up 4.7% from a year earlier, according to NAR.

What does the record low in pending sales mean for Vermont?

Signed contracts usually become closings within one to two months, so national closed sales are likely to weaken this winter. In Vermont, about five months of supply means well-priced homes still sell, while overpriced homes wait and buyers have more room to negotiate.

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Sources

Tony Walton, Principal Broker, New England Landmark Realty, Waterbury Center, Vermont. 802-233-4107.