By Tony Walton

While everyone spent 2025 waiting for the crash that never came, something more interesting happened: the market learned to move again.

Not with the manic energy of 2021, when bidding wars felt like blood sport and waiving inspections became a twisted badge of honor. And not with the paralytic fear of 2023, when rising rates turned homeowners into mortgage prisoners and buyers into spectators. No—2025 was the year the market remembered how to breathe. Slowly. Deliberately. And in Vermont, with a 19.4% year-over-year increase in homes sold, surprisingly robustly.

This wasn't the year of the deal. It was the year of defrosting.

The Thaw: What Actually Happened in 2025

Let's start with what the data actually tells us, not what the panic merchants predicted.

Vermont's median home prices climbed between 2% and 7% depending on the county and month. Inventory rose approximately 19%, offering buyers long-missing choices. Nationally, existing home sales reached 4.1 million units, up 0.8% from 2024 (source: Zillow).

Here’s what really happened: life started to override mortgage paralysis. Sellers began to list as circumstances demanded change, and patient buyers who’d learned to underwrite at 6.5% showed up. The result? Movement—not mania, not collapse—just healthy market movement.

The Reality Check: The Uncomfortable Truths of 2025

Central Vermont’s Waterbury market illustrated a deeper challenge: a 71% surge in listings, yet a 46% drop in sales during Q2. That’s not pricing—it's absorption lag in a high-rate environment.

Mortgage rates hovered in the mid-6% range. First-time buyers struggled with affordability. Price reductions returned. The phrase “motivated seller” regained meaning.

2025 was difficult. But markets with friction still function. Frozen ones don’t. Movement is messy—but necessary.

2026: The Great Housing Reset

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing home sales are forecast to rise 14% in 2026. Realtor.com predicts rates will ease to an average of 6.3%—not dramatic, but psychologically significant for sidelined buyers.

Home prices are expected to rise 1–2% nationally. Vermont is likely to match or slightly outperform this range thanks to steady demand and less speculative volatility than larger metro markets.

Vermont offers enduring value: real communities, strong school systems, and lifestyle stability. With the “kidfluence” trend pushing families toward space and schools (Zillow), Vermont is positioned well.

Why Buyers and Sellers Can Both Win in 2026

This isn’t a zero-sum market. Sellers entering now benefit from price stability and more qualified buyers. Intelligent pricing and property preparation will be key to winning spring activity.

Buyers, meanwhile, enter better prepared. With more inventory and stabilized rates, 2026 offers opportunity—not panic. They’re buying before appreciation kicks up again, not at the top of a bubble.

When inventory and demand rebalance, everyone wins. Transactions happen for the right reasons—not fear, not scarcity, but fit.

The Last Word

2025 taught us that perfection is a myth—and waiting for it is expensive procrastination. 2026 rewards those who move, not those who time. The Vermont market is breathing again, and that’s the first step toward a fully functioning, healthier market for all.

Ready to Move in 2026?

Whether you’re buying your first home or finally ready to sell, 2026 is positioned to reward smart movers. Let’s talk strategy, local insight, and what timing makes sense for you.

Contact Tony Walton

Tony Walton
Founding Partner & Principal Broker
New England Landmark Realty
📍 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, VT 05676
📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
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