Tony Walton's Full Article (Unedited)

The Vermont Housing Market in 2026: A Thaw, Not a Fire Sale

The market is calming down. The shortage is not.

The Vermont housing market isn't crashing. It's calming down. Those are not the same thing, and confusing them has become one of the state's more reliable hobbies. Nationally, 2026 looks like a year of modest relief: mortgage rates are forecast to average 6.3%, home prices are expected to rise 2.2%, and for-sale inventory is projected to improve by 8.9%. In most places, it would mean a softer, more negotiable market. In Vermont, it means something narrower: a little more room, a little less frenzy, and the same old supply problem still sitting in the middle of the table.

The latest numbers support that view. In March 2026, the median sale price in Vermont reached $438,400, up 9.1% from a year earlier. Homes for sale rose 16.4% to 2,871. New listings were up 8.1%, and months of supply climbed to five. In other words, buyers finally have a little oxygen. They may even get to ask a question, call their lender, and sleep on a decision without losing the house to someone paying cash before breakfast. That's progress. It's just not a miracle.

Before anyone starts whispering about a grand correction, it's worth remembering the central fact of this market: Vermont is still structurally short on housing. The state's housing needs assessment estimates Vermont needs another 24,000 to 36,000 homes between 2025 and 2029 to support household growth, normalize vacancy rates, replace lost housing stock, and reduce homelessness. That is not a small gap waiting politely to be closed. That is the kind of deficit that turns "better inventory" into "still not enough."

That's why affordability remains the real story. A balanced market is not the same as an accessible one. One gives buyers options. The other gives them entry. Vermont is inching toward the first while still denying the second to too many people. VHFA found that the share of Vermont renters with enough income to buy a median-priced home fell from 32% in 2021 to 6% in 2023. Half of Vermont renters are cost-burdened, and one in four spend more than half their income on housing. Those are not just housing statistics. They are pressure points for families, employers, schools, and anyone who would like Vermont to remain a place people can live in rather than merely admire.

To be fair, this is not an unhealthy market. It is simply a market with less theater and better manners than it had a few years ago. In March, 17.6% of Vermont homes still sold above list price, and the statewide sale-to-list ratio was 97.1%. Vermont still has demand. Good homes in good locations still get attention. The market has become more civilized. It has not become sleepy.

For sellers, that means this is still a strong market, but not one that rewards fantasy pricing or lazy preparation. Buyers now have more choices, which means condition matters, presentation matters, and pricing matters. The house has to earn the offer. For buyers, the shift is meaningful not because homes are suddenly cheap — they are not — but because the emotional tempo has improved. Buying a house should feel weighty. It should not feel like speed dating with a mortgage pre-approval.

For the broader state, the lesson is harder and less flattering. Vermont's housing problem is not mainly a mortgage-rate problem or a mood problem. It is, at root, a supply problem. And supply problems do not respond to sentiment. They respond to homes being built. Until that happens at scale, every improvement will be partial, every sigh of relief temporary, and every rebound likely to run back into the same wall.

So what should we call the Vermont housing market in 2026? Not a crash. Not a frenzy. A thaw, maybe. Buyers have more room. Sellers have less leverage than they did at the peak. The tone is better. The math is still brutal. And the dream of living in Vermont remains more expensive than many working households can comfortably afford. That doesn't call for panic. It calls for clarity.