By New England Landmark Realty LTD
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes like Robert Frost on his worst day—and right now, the national housing market is rhyming with revenge.
The data dropped this week like a warning shot across Lake Champlain: total pending home sales hit a multiyear high, mortgage rates have held below 6.64% for 16 consecutive weeks, and purchase applications are surging 26% year-over-year. Wall Street is calling this "recovery." In Washington, Lamoille, and Chittenden counties, we call it the calm before the storm.
The Death of Vermont Seasonality: 2020 Changed Everything
Let's bury the most expensive myth in Vermont real estate: the notion that our market hibernates when the snow flies. That quaint idea died in March 2020, right alongside the concept that you need to live near your office.
I've closed deals in January blizzards and February deep freezes. I've had bidding wars in March mud season and competitive offers on Thanksgiving weekend. The remote work revolution didn't just change where people work—it obliterated the seasonal patterns that governed our market for generations.
Since 2020, Vermont operates as a 24/7/365 marketplace where demand doesn't care about snow tires, mud season, or black fly season. Buyers think lifestyle first, logistics never. They're not waiting for spring—they're buying whenever they find the right property, because the right property in Vermont doesn't wait for anyone.
The old rhythm—list in April, sell in June, regroup in fall—has been replaced by a new rule: If a good listing hits in your price range in a decent town, it's in season.
The Rate Trap: Why Waiting Is Financial Suicide
Here's the uncomfortable truth that should keep every prospective buyer awake at night: lower rates are not your salvation—they're your competition's invitation to the party.
The math is brutal and simple:
- At 7%+, many locals bow out entirely
- At 6%+, they stretch hard but stay disciplined
- At something starting with a 5, the floodgates open
Every quarter-point drop in rates does three things in our market:
- Reactivates “wait-and-see” locals from Waterbury, Montpelier, or Burlington
- Reinvites out-of-state buyers from Boston, NYC, and NJ
- Tightens already limited inventory
The result: Lower rates equal more competition plus fewer options. Not relief—acceleration.
The Ghost of 2021: Pre-Bloodbath, The Sequel
When I look at 42 straight weeks of positive year-over-year purchase app data and 29 weeks of double-digit growth, I don't see some soft landing. I see the early outline of Pre-2022: The Sequel—maybe not as insane, but rhyming with it perfectly.
What that era looked like in Vermont:
- "We'll wait for a quieter time" meant never buying
- "We'll just see what comes up" meant chasing prices uphill for 18 months
- "We don't want to overpay" meant renting for three more years
The ingredients are in place: scarce supply, lifestyle migration, improved rates. That doesn't point to "deals"—it points to velocity.
The Competition Equation: Know Your Opponents
If you're a local buyer, you're not imagining things—it is hard. You're competing with:
- Remote workers with big-city incomes
- Second-home buyers who don’t negotiate aggressively
- Climate migrants already emotionally committed to Vermont
But at 6.3%, you still have an edge—room to negotiate and win without madness. That window is closing.
The Inventory Reality: Scarcity as a Feature
National inventory growth is up 15.5% YoY. In Vermont? That might mean 2 or 3 good homes become 4. No subdivisions. No tract housing. Just trickle listings filtered by topography and permits.
Our scarcity isn’t a bug—it’s a feature. And when competition rises again, even that modest bump vanishes.
For Vermont Buyers: The Harsh Math of Timing
If you're waiting for lower rates, lower prices, and less competition—you're betting against reality.
You can refinance a rate. You can't refinance missing the house entirely.
The smart money acts when there's leverage—not when the crowd stampedes.
For Vermont Sellers: The Strategic Window
You’re not racing the seasons. You’re racing buyer psychology and mortgage rate bands. List before the next big rate drop and you’ll capture serious buyers before they turn manic.
The 2026 Setup: All Systems Go
If spreads normalize and rates fall closer to 6%, we’ll be back in velocity mode. For Vermont? That’s not balance. That’s chaos.
The Bottom Line: Act While You Can Negotiate
We live in one of the most beautiful places on Earth, where the mountains aren't going anywhere, the communities aren't diluting, and the opportunity to own a piece of this place is narrowing by the week.
The mortgage rate environment is cooperating right now. Inventory is stabilizing right now. Buyers are motivated but not manic right now.
When rates drop—and they will—all of that changes. You'll be competing with everyone who's been waiting for their "perfect moment," and perfect moments in Vermont real estate are as rare as a warm February.
Stop waiting for perfect rates and start acting in the imperfect present. Buy when you can negotiate, not when you're forced to capitulate. The bloodbath isn't dead—it's dormant. And it looks like it's waking up.
Life is so rich—especially when you have the courage to act while others hesitate.
Ready to Navigate the Market with a Pro?
If you're buying or selling in Chittenden, Lamoille, or Washington County, now is the time to act. Whether you need help making sense of the market or you're ready to tour homes, Tony Walton is here to guide you.
Contact Tony Walton:
📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
🏠 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, VT 05676
🌐 Learn more about Tony
