By New England Landmark Realty LTD

The national housing market has endured a challenging few years, with rising mortgage rates since 2022 stifling growth. However, as we edge closer to 2025, cautious optimism is brewing—and Vermont’s real estate market is poised to benefit uniquely.

National forecasts suggest an upswing in home sales, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) projecting a 9% increase in 2025 and a further 13% boost in 2026. But how will Vermont’s distinct market dynamics respond to these broader trends? Let’s dig in.

Vermont’s Distinct Advantage in a Shifting Market

In Vermont, the housing market is more resilient than most, thanks to its blend of natural appeal and a steady influx of buyers seeking a lifestyle upgrade. The Green Mountain State continues to attract urban escapees from nearby metros like Boston and New York, drawn by its picturesque landscapes and slower pace of life. This enduring demand and a relatively stable local economy position Vermont as a standout in uncertain times.

According to NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, job growth and mortgage rates will drive the housing market recovery. Vermont’s lower unemployment rates and the burgeoning tourism-driven economy could amplify these positive effects locally. While national GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.3% in 2024, Vermont’s regional economic performance—supported by its growing outdoor recreation industry and expanding remote workforce—offers a brighter outlook.

Mortgage Rates: A Game-Changer for Buyers and Sellers

The biggest wild card for the Vermont market, as elsewhere, will be mortgage rates. Yun anticipates rate cuts in 2025, a potential lifeline for prospective buyers who have been priced out of the market due to high borrowing costs. Vermont homeowners sitting on low-rate mortgages from earlier years might finally feel confident enough to list their properties, boosting inventory levels.

However, the specter of inflation looms large, especially with incoming President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies. If tariffs on foreign imports spike inflation, household budgets across the country—including in Vermont—could face additional strain. For buyers, the resulting higher costs of goods and construction could make homeownership less attainable. Builders in Vermont, already dealing with rising material prices and labor shortages, could see costs surge further.

2024 Trends to Watch in Vermont

  1. Home Price Stability: Unlike overheated markets in the Sunbelt, Vermont is expected to see steady, not spiking, price growth. This is good news for buyers waiting on the sidelines.
  2. Inventory Growth: Vermont’s inventory could expand modestly as more homeowners feel confident about selling, particularly if rates stabilize.
  3. Days on Market: Expect homes to stay on the market slightly longer than in the peak COVID-era frenzy, reflecting a return to a more balanced market.
  4. Tourism Impact: The booming ski and summer tourism industries fuel demand for vacation homes, particularly in areas like Stowe, Killington, and the Champlain Valley.
  5. Remote Work: Vermont’s allure as a remote work haven continues to grow. More professionals are trading urban apartments for rural charm, driving demand in towns like Middlebury, Woodstock, and Brattleboro.

Will Trump’s Policies Alter the Path?

President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to fiscal policy could create ripples—or waves—in the housing market. While lower interest rates might boost affordability, proposed tariffs could add to inflationary pressures. In Vermont, where many construction materials are imported, tariffs could exacerbate already high building costs, delaying new projects and straining affordability further.

As Yun points out, if the Trump administration can credibly reduce the federal budget deficit, mortgage rates could decline even further, offering much-needed relief. A calmer fiscal policy would be a significant boon for Vermont, which thrives on stability and long-term investment.

Vermont in 2025: A Land of Opportunity

Looking ahead, the Vermont housing market is set to benefit from its unique blend of lifestyle appeal, economic resilience, and stable demand. While external pressures like national policy shifts and inflation will play a role, Vermont’s allure as a haven for those seeking space, community, and a connection to nature will keep its market vibrant.

Critical takeaways for Vermont in 2025:

  • Sellers: Price your home competitively to attract motivated buyers in a stabilizing market.
  • Buyers: If mortgage rates decline as expected, 2025 could be the year to secure your Vermont dream home.
  • Investors: Keep an eye on short-term rental markets in popular tourist towns; demand for vacation properties remains high.

Vermont real estate is about more than just transactions—it’s about lifestyle transformation. If you’re ready to move or invest in the state’s bright future, Tony Walton and his team are here to guide you every step of the way. With decades of local expertise and a commitment to personalized service, we’re your trusted partners in Vermont’s real estate market. Visit VTMove.com or call 802-253-4711 to start your journey today.