By New England Landmark Realty LTD

Vermont’s real estate market is at a crossroads. Sellers are emerging from the shadows; inventory is rising, yet home prices remain stubbornly high. Nationally, the housing market is in flux. Mortgage rates are still elevated, the economy is sending mixed signals, and inventory is climbing faster than expected. The big question: Will Vermont’s home prices drop as supply increases?

More Homes on the Market—A Shift in Vermont’s Seller Behavior

Vermont homeowners have been locked into historically low mortgage rates for nearly five years, reluctant to sell. That’s changing. National data shows a 7% weekly increase in new listings, and Vermont is following suit. Some of this is expected seasonal activity, but the more profound shift may be economic uncertainty.

A seasoned Vermont real estate professional, Tony Walton, sees a clear trend: “We’re starting to see sellers who feel the economic pressure. Inflation, job concerns, and high borrowing costs are nudging people to list their homes—sometimes out of necessity.”

In short, Vermont’s market isn’t just waking up for spring. It’s responding to broader economic forces.

Inventory Growth: More Choices for Buyers, But at What Cost?

Vermont’s housing supply is rising faster than in previous years. The key metric is the spread between 2024 and 2025 inventory levels. Nationally, 29% more homes are on the market than last year. In Vermont, the increase is evident in counties like Chittenden and Windsor, where active listings have ticked up by double digits.

Yet, more supply doesn’t automatically mean lower prices. “Buyers still face affordability challenges due to high mortgage rates,” Walton explains. “Even with more choices, demand won’t surge until financing becomes more attractive.”

Price Trends: Holding Steady, But for How Long?

Right now, Vermont home prices mirror national patterns—essentially flat year over year. The median home price for pending sales is unchanged from 2024, and active listings are up a modest 1%. At the same time, there’s no immediate sign of a pricing collapse; one key factor could push prices downward: price reductions.

Nationally, 34% of homes on the market have already cut prices—a significant number for this early in the selling season. Vermont is seeing similar discounting in markets like Rutland and Bennington, where sellers adjust expectations.

The wildcard? Interest rates. If mortgage rates rise, buyer demand could weaken, forcing more price reductions. If rates fall, pent-up demand could keep prices stable—or even push them higher.

What This Means for Vermont Buyers and Sellers

  • Sellers: If you’re thinking about listing, be prepared for competition. Homes sit on the market longer, and price cuts are becoming more common. Pricing strategically from the start is key.
  • Buyers: More inventory means more negotiating power. But don’t expect deep discounts—at least not yet. The best deals may come later in the year if economic uncertainty grows.
  • Market Outlook: Inventory is rising, but price growth will likely remain flat unless demand picks up. Vermont could see its first real pricing pressure if economic conditions worsen in years.

Final Takeaway: A Market in Transition

Vermont’s real estate market is indeed shifting, but it's important to note that it's not collapsing. Rising inventory is providing buyers with more choices, yet prices are holding steady. The next few months will reveal whether increased supply finally tips the scales—or if Vermont’s housing market, as it has shown in the past, remains resilient.

Tony Walton and his team at NELandmark.com are tracking these shifts daily. Whether buying or selling, now is the time to make data-driven decisions. Call 802-253-4711 to discuss your best strategy in this evolving market.