By New England Landmark Realty LTD
Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's efforts to dampen the festive mood nationally, Vermont's housing market stood strong, buoyed by robust demand and improving inventory conditions. As we approach 2025, there's every reason to believe that Vermont's real estate will not just survive, but thrive, even in the face of higher mortgage rates.
Vermont's Purchase Application Data
This data is a key indicator of the health of Vermont's housing market, as it reflects the level of interest and activity among potential homebuyers. Despite rising rates, Vermont's purchase applications mirrored national growth trends, increasing 1% week-over-week and 6% year-over-year. Historically, mortgage rate dips in November and December drive demand, but Vermont buyers proved undeterred by rate increases this year. It seems New England's seasonal charm isn't limited to tourism—it's driving homebuyer activity, too.
Consider this encouraging trend: in the past 10 weeks, six weeks of positive application growth have outpaced four weeks of declines. Vermont is reaping the benefits of this significant trend as buyers seize the opportunity to claim a piece of the state's renowned quality of life.
Pending Sales Signal Resilience in Vermont
Data from Altos Research reveals a year-over-year increase in weekly pending sales, with last week's volume outpacing both 2023 and 2022 figures. While national pending sales reached 293,555, Vermont's market is seeing its own pockets of growth, particularly in communities like Burlington and Montpelier, where demand is high and properties are selling quickly.
This is a clear sign: Vermont's housing market is not just showing promise, but is poised for a strong start in the new year, despite the usual seasonal slowdowns.
Mortgage Rates and the Local Impact
Mortgage rates have fluctuated wildly this year, but Vermont has weathered the storm better than most markets. Why? Favorable spreads and a determined pool of buyers seeking homes in one of the country's most livable states. While national rates hovered between 7.25% and 5.75%, Vermont's steady demand reflects the draw of its lifestyle, natural beauty, and tight-knit communities.
If spreads normalize in 2025, rates could fall below 7%—a welcome change for Vermont buyers and sellers alike.
Inventory: Vermont's Healthier Market
While Vermont's housing inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels, it has improved from the shockingly low numbers seen in 2022. For context, the all-time national inventory bottom in 2022 was 240,497 active listings. Still, Vermont markets have shown steady improvement since then.
Increased inventory creates a healthier balance between buyers and sellers in areas like Stowe and Brattleboro. The current trajectory suggests that Vermont will enter 2025 with a more substantial inventory than in the past two years.
Price Trends and Vermont's Affordability
Nationally, about 37.4% of homes experienced price cuts last week. Vermont's market, however, is seeing price stabilization thanks to steady demand and limited supply. While home prices are predicted to rise 2.33% nationally in 2024, Vermont's unique market dynamics—fueled by second-home buyers and retirees—may increase that growth.
Communities like Woodstock and Shelburne are particularly competitive, with price-cut percentages lower than the national average, signaling sustained buyer interest.
New Listings and Seasonal Patterns
New listings in Vermont are following the typical seasonal decline. However, the data reveals that Vermont is outperforming in year-over-year growth. The state's ability to attract buyers—particularly those seeking second homes or retreats—has helped mitigate the typical holiday slowdown.
In 2024, Vermont's new listings held strong, particularly in markets like Burlington, which continue to see steady buyer activity even as the year winds down.
2025: A Bright Year Ahead for Vermont Housing
Despite Jerome Powell's Grinch-like remarks, Vermont's housing market is strong. With improving inventory, resilient buyer demand, and steady price trends, the Green Mountain State is poised for another robust year.
If you're considering buying or selling in Vermont, now is the time to connect with local experts who understand this dynamic market. Tony Walton and his team at NELandmark.com bring unmatched local knowledge and a deep commitment to personal service. Call Tony today at 802-253-4711 and discover why Vermont remains a place worth calling home.
In 2025, Vermont isn't just surviving; it's thriving. If Powell wants to play the Grinch, let him. Vermont's housing market is a gift that keeps on giving.
