By Tony Walton – November 2025

Most Vermonters don’t know it yet, but our state is undergoing a quiet transformation — one that will shape where we live, what our towns look like, how land is valued, and what future generations can build. It’s happening in meeting rooms, working groups, regional planning sessions, and Act 250 hearings that few attend and even fewer follow. But the effects will touch every landowner in Vermont.

If you haven’t heard of Tier 3 or Tier 1B housing appeals, or if the phrase “Act 250 modernization” makes you want to take a nap, you’re not alone. These changes aren’t on most Vermonters’ radar. They’re technical, procedural, and wrapped in planning language that feels far removed from what happens on your road or in your village.

And yet — they amount to the biggest shift in Vermont land‑use philosophy since Act 250 was passed in 1970.

1. The New Direction: Rural Land Stays Rural, Town Centers Grow

For generations, rural development in Vermont followed a predictable pattern:
If a landowner had road frontage and could get a wastewater permit, they could usually build a home or create a few lots. Towns varied in requirements, but the basic rules held.

Today, that pattern is breaking.

With Tier 3 designations expanding across many rural parts of the state and Tier 1 and 1B designations signalling where the state wants housing growth to occur, Vermont has taken a clear position:

Preserve resource lands.
Concentrate growth in village and town centers.

State documents talk about “predictability,” “ecological protection,” “housing creation,” and “streamlining,” but the underlying direction is unmistakable. Tier 3 land will face more constraints, more studies, and more scrutiny than ever. Tier 1 areas — places with sewer, water, walkability, and services — will eventually enjoy faster Act 250 approvals and, hopefully, simplified zoning.

It’s a shift toward compact, walkable, infrastructure-efficient living — and away from dispersed large‑lot, rural sprawl.

2. Why Most Vermonters Haven’t Heard About This Yet

If you haven’t been following:

  • Land Use Review Board meeting minutes
  • Tier 3 working group transcripts
  • Regional Planning Commission pre-application reviews
  • Committee testimony
  • Or Appeals Study sessions

…you would never know this change is underway.

That’s not because anything is being hidden — it’s because the process is technical, decentralized, and not reported on in any meaningful way. Vermont doesn’t have a robust land‑use press corps. Local papers don’t have the staff to cover 3‑hour committee hearings. The public doesn’t flock to planning meetings.

So while the public conversation focuses on housing prices, flooding, and school budgets, the actual regulatory framework shaping the next 20–40 years is quietly being built step by step.

3. The State’s Logic: Why Push Development Inward?

The underlying reasons make sense:

  • Infrastructure: Sewer and water systems can’t be cost‑effectively built everywhere.
  • Environment: Rural development often overlaps sensitive habitats, wetlands, and flood corridors.
  • Climate: Concentrated growth reduces vehicle miles and preserves carbon‑absorbing land.
  • Housing: The fastest path to new units is infill where services already exist.
  • Costs: Compact development is cheaper to maintain than scattered development.

In pure planning terms, this is smart policy.

The challenge isn’t the goals — it’s the execution, because…

4. The Bottleneck No One Talks About: Local Zoning

Here’s the catch:

Even if the state streamlines Act 250 for growth centers, developers still need to pass through local zoning first.

That means:

  • DRB hearings
  • Planning commission meetings
  • Design review
  • Conditional use review
  • Parking requirements
  • Setbacks
  • Height limits
  • Neighborhood objections
  • Traffic studies
  • Infrastructure allocation decisions
  • Multiple rounds of revisions

Act 250 isn’t the biggest barrier to housing in Vermont anymore. Local zoning is.

And nothing in the Tier 3/Tier 1 framework overrides local boards — at least not yet.

This creates a tension that will define Vermont’s next decade: the state is pushing growth toward town centers faster than those towns are prepared — or politically willing — to accept it.

5. What This Means for Rural Landowners

If you own rural land, Tier 3 doesn’t eliminate your ability to build. But it does:

  • Add regulatory uncertainty
  • Increase the cost of studies
  • Reduce the potential for subdivision
  • Lengthen timelines
  • Introduce more appeals risk

Over time, this softens the development value of rural land, even if its amenity, recreational, or scenic value stays strong.

This won’t happen overnight. But it will happen.

Vermont is creating a system where development energy drains away from rural areas and pools inside village boundaries. Over 5–15 years, that will influence pricing, investment patterns, and long-term land-use strategies.

6. What This Means for Town Centers

Small Vermont towns — Waterbury, Stowe, Richmond, Waitsfield, Morrisville, Montpelier, and many others — are now positioned for the next chapter of Vermont’s growth.

Whether they want to be or not.

If these towns embrace housing‑friendly zoning, the next decade could bring:

  • Infill apartments
  • Small‑scale mixed‑use buildings
  • Redevelopment of older commercial stock
  • Accessory dwelling units
  • Townhouses
  • Senior housing
  • Workforce housing over shops
  • Rehabbing of underused properties
  • More walkable village centers

If they do not — if local boards reject this shift — then the state will eventually face pressure to act more forcefully, just as other states have done during severe housing shortages.

That moment hasn’t come yet in Vermont. But the underlying forces are building.

7. Why This Matters Now (Not Two Years From Now)

This is not hype or alarmism — it’s simply where the policy and planning winds are blowing.

Whether you’re a homeowner, a landowner, a buyer, a seller, a builder, or a town official, understanding Tier 3 and Vermont’s growth‑center strategy is critical for long-term planning.

And right now, almost no one in Vermont knows this shift is happening.

That’s why staying informed matters.

8. Where to Learn More (Official & Regional Resources)

These are the best places for Vermonters to follow what’s changing:

Official State Resources

Regional Planning Perspective

These resources offer a full picture — from policy architects to municipal planners to environmental watchdogs.

These are not advocacy sources — they are direct, factual, government‑managed hubs of information.

9. The Road Ahead: A Fork in the Vermont Forest

Vermont is at a turning point, even if we don’t realize it yet.

We can adapt thoughtfully — by aligning town zoning, state incentives, infrastructure capacity, and community goals — or we can resist change and face far greater housing pressures in the years ahead.

The rules are shifting. The map is shifting. And the value of land — whether in town centers or rural hillsides — will shift with it.

Get Guidance for Buyers or Sellers

If you own land, a home, or are considering purchasing or selling in Vermont — staying ahead of these land‑use shifts can make a big difference. Learn how these trends affect you:

Contact Tony Walton for Personalized Advice

If you have questions about how Tier 3 changes could affect your property value, rural land, or potential for development — I’m here to help.

Tony Walton
New England Landmark Realty
26 N Main Street, Suite 2
Waterbury, Vermont 05676
Phone: 802‑253‑4711
Email: tonywalton@nelandmark.com
Learn more about Tony Walton