By Tony Walton, Principal Broker, New England Landmark Realty · The Numbers Guy · Updated October 3, 2026

Quick Answer

No. With eight months of 2026 data in, Vermont home prices have not dropped. The statewide median sale price was $438,280 in August 2026, up 0.8% from a year earlier, even as homes for sale rose 14.2%. Prices did slip in a few counties in the first half of the year, including Chittenden (down 2.2%) and Washington (down 2.8%), but the statewide market is flat, not falling.

Key Takeaways

Two-Sentence Summary

Vermont's 2026 market gave buyers more choice and more time, but not lower prices: the statewide median is still edging up. What changed is the gap between well-priced homes, which still sell quickly, and overpriced homes, which sit and then sell well below their first asking price.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  1. Prices held: the statewide median was up 0.8% year over year in August 2026.
  2. Supply grew: 3,869 homes were for sale in August, 14.2% more than a year earlier, and the median home took 69 days to sell.
  3. Rates went the wrong way for buyers: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% on October 1, 2026, well above the roughly 6% many forecasts expected for this year.

Quick Facts

  • Vermont median sale price (Aug 2026): $438,280, up 0.8% (Redfin)
  • Homes for sale (Aug 2026): 3,869, up 14.2% (Redfin)
  • Median days on market: 69, up 11 days (Redfin)
  • Homes with a price drop: 15.0% (Redfin)
  • 30-year fixed rate: 7.28% on Oct 1, 2026 (Freddie Mac)
  • Counties with lower first-half medians: Chittenden, Washington, Franklin, Grand Isle

The 2026 Scorecard

Last December, the question was whether more inventory would finally push Vermont prices down. Here is what actually happened, using Redfin's August 2026 data for the state:

  • Median sale price: $438,280, up 0.8% from August 2025.
  • Homes for sale: 3,869, up 14.2%.
  • Median days on market: 69, up 11 days.
  • Sale-to-list ratio: 97.1%, down 0.69 points. 19.6% of homes sold above list, down 2.9 points.
  • Homes with a price drop: 15.0%, up 0.8 points.

Every measure of buyer leverage improved. The price did not fall. That combination tells you the market is rebalancing through time and negotiation, not through lower values.

Why Prices Didn't Fall

Vermont is still short on homes. Seven Days, reporting Vermont Realtors data in September 2026, noted that Vermont recorded about 7,200 home sales in 2025, compared with a pre-pandemic average of about 8,500 a year. Active listings are at their highest level since 2020, but more listings after years of scarcity is a return toward normal, not a glut.

Prices fall when sellers are forced to sell into weak demand. Vermont has neither condition today. Pending sales in August were up 2.2% from a year earlier, and buyers are still showing up for homes that are priced and presented well.

The Forecast That Missed: Mortgage Rates

The forecasts we cited when this post first ran in December 2025 expected 30-year mortgage rates of roughly 5.9% to 6.2% in 2026. That did not happen. Freddie Mac's weekly average reached 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% a week earlier and 6.34% a year earlier.

On Vermont's $438,280 median with 20% down, principal and interest is about $2,400 a month at 7.28%, versus about $2,180 at 6.34%. Higher rates are why homes take longer to sell this year. They have not been enough to push prices down. The lesson for any buyer waiting on a rate forecast: buy the home you can afford at today's rate, and treat a future refinance as upside.

County by County: Where Prices Dipped

The statewide number hides real differences. Single-family medians for January to June 2026, from Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman's mid-year report (NEREN data):

County Median price Change vs. 2025 Homes sold
Chittenden $577,000 -2.2% 421
Lamoille $530,000 +6.0% 97
Addison $480,000 +0.5% 121
Grand Isle $460,000 -11.1% 39
Washington $400,000 -2.8% 202
Franklin $389,000 -6.4% 201

Two cautions. First, a median can move because the mix of homes sold changed, not because any one home lost value. Second, small counties swing hard: Grand Isle's 11.1% decline comes from just 39 sales. Lamoille, home to Stowe, was the standout gainer at 6.0%.

Prices Held, but Overpricing Got Expensive

The real story of 2026 is not the median. It is what happens to homes that start too high. In our own PrimeMLS analysis of single-family sales from January 1 to September 27, 2026:

  • Stowe: homes that sold within 30 days got a median 100% of original list price. Homes that sat 100 days or more got a median 79.7%. 23 of 57 sales closed 10% or more below original list.
  • Montpelier: the median home sold in 7 days. Homes that sold within a week got a median 100% of original list; the five homes that sat 100 days or more got a median 90.5%.

For a seller, that is a price drop in everything but name, and it is self-inflicted. For a buyer, it is the opportunity: the leverage in this market sits with the homes that have been listed for a while.

What This Means for Buyers

Do not wait for a statewide price drop that the data does not support. Your leverage comes from inventory and time on market, not from falling values. Focus on homes listed for 60 days or more, homes that need work, and homes that have already cut their price. Get pre-approved at today's rate, and read our Vermont home buying guide and mortgage shopping guide before you tour.

What This Means for Sellers

Your home has not lost value, but your buyer has more choices than at any point since 2020. Price to the most recent comparable sales, present the home move-in ready, and if you have no offers in the first two weeks, adjust then rather than in month four. Our Vermont seller's guide and pricing guide walk through the process.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Vermont home prices dropping in 2026?

No. Vermont's median sale price was $438,280 in August 2026, up 0.8% from a year earlier, according to Redfin. Prices are flat to slightly up statewide, while inventory and days on market have risen.

Which Vermont counties saw prices fall in 2026?

In the first half of 2026, single-family medians fell in Chittenden (-2.2%), Washington (-2.8%), Franklin (-6.4%) and Grand Isle (-11.1%), and rose in Lamoille (+6.0%) and Addison (+0.5%), per Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman's mid-year report.

Why aren't Vermont home prices falling?

Vermont is still short on homes. The state recorded about 7,200 home sales in 2025, below its pre-pandemic average of about 8,500 a year, and buyer demand is holding: pending sales in August 2026 were up 2.2% from a year earlier.

What are mortgage rates in 2026?

Freddie Mac's national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year earlier. Your rate depends on your credit, down payment and loan type.

Should I wait to buy a home in Vermont?

Waiting for lower prices is not supported by the 2026 data. Buyers have more leverage through higher inventory and longer days on market, especially on homes that have been listed for a while or have had a price cut.

What to Do Next

Want to know what these numbers mean for a specific town or home? Call Tony Walton at 802-233-4107 (cell) or the New England Landmark Realty office at 802-253-4711.

Sources