Expert analysis from Tony Walton, Principal Broker at New England Landmark Realty, on what Vermont homebuyers and sellers can expect from the market in 2026.

The Real Market Story

The question lands in my inbox at least twice a week: Are prices really going to fall? People ask it with a mixture of hope and dread, like they're betting the market will finally correct itself. The honest answer is more complex than a yes or no, and frankly, that complexity is where the actual opportunity lies.

Vermont's real estate market doesn't operate in headlines. It operates in tensions—between supply and demand, between local lifestyle appeal and national economic currents, between what people fear and what the data actually shows.

Let's start with what happened. In September 2024, fewer homes sold in Vermont compared to the year before—down about 9%. This detail gets amplified by people searching for vindication: See? The market is cooling. But here's the catch: prices didn't collapse. They actually rose 3% year-over-year. The median sale price sat at $406,100. That's not a market breaking apart. That's a market recalibrating.

Meanwhile, inventory jumped 33%. More homes on the market. Fewer sales. Yet prices held. Why? Because Vermont still faces a fundamental constraint: there simply aren't enough homes available. A four-month supply still favors sellers, even if it doesn't feel that way compared to the pandemic era when homes sold in hours.

The 2026 Forecast Isn't as Dramatic as People Hope

National housing analysts project home prices will rise 3-4% nationally in 2026. Mortgage rates are expected to settle between 5.9% and 6.2%—down from current levels but nothing like the 3% rates that defined 2020-2021. It's the opposite of a housing fire sale. It's normalization.

For Vermont specifically, the projections vary by region. Burlington—the state's economic engine—is expected to grow modestly. Rutland and Barre face near-flat conditions or slight declines. Central Vermont, where New England Landmark operates, sits in that interesting middle ground: not booming, but not collapsing either. In fact, northwest and central Vermont have seen median sale prices climb to $500,000, representing a 5.26% increase from the prior year.

What's Actually Driving This Market

Here's what separates Vermont from the narrative of national market collapse: the why behind Vermont demand.

People don't move to Vermont because of rate arbitrage or pandemic novelty anymore. Those waves have passed. People move here now because they've decided they want to raise a family in a place with real schools, real mountains, and real community. That decision-making process is stickier. It's less price-sensitive.

Chittenden County's median home sale price hovers around $539,000. Lamoille County—your access point to both mountain recreation and rural charm—holds steady at $500,000. These aren't declining. They're holding their ground in a market where the easy money has already been made.

The tourism and second-home market, often overlooked in national analyses, continues to provide underlying support. Stowe, Killington, and the Champlain Valley aren't dealing with the same real estate collapse as markets like Nashville or Austin, which boomed during the remote-work era and are now struggling as offices call people back and insurance costs spike. Vermont's tourism-driven demand is countercyclical to broader economic shifts—it actually performs better when people need an escape.

The Affordability Inflection Point

Here's where 2026 actually matters: this is the first year in a decade where wages are projected to grow faster than home prices.

That's not revolutionary. It's corrective. For years, buyers have been priced out by the basic math: home prices shot up faster than paychecks could follow. That gap is finally narrowing. Combine slightly lower mortgage rates with modest price growth, and the monthly payment equation starts working again for people who've been frozen out.

That drives volume differently than price. More buyers entering the market means more transactions, more pricing clarity, more movement. Not necessarily higher prices.

The Regional Nuance Matters

Washington County, Lamoille County, and Chittenden County aren't monoliths. A home in downtown Waterbury operates in a different market than a home in a rural Washington County town. A property near Stowe has different demand drivers than a property in Barre.

The forecasts that show Rutland potentially declining while Burlington holds steady reflect this reality. Supply is distributed unevenly. Demand is distributed unevenly. Local factors—new employers, school performance, access to recreation—matter as much as national rates.

What Actually Changes in 2026

If Vermont home prices don't drop significantly, what does change?

  • Inventory dynamics shift: More homes on the market changes the negotiating position.
  • Days on market increase: Especially for homes priced too high or in lower-demand areas.
  • Seller psychology adjusts: The “name your price” era is over.
  • Buyer psychology changes too: More leverage, fewer bidding wars, and better terms for buyers.

What This Means for You

If you're a buyer: The crash probably isn’t coming. But conditions may be better for you—more inventory, affordability gains, and less competition.

If you're a seller: Price to today’s market. Focus on real value like efficiency and updates. The market rewards realism.

If you're an investor: Cash flow beats speculation. Buy-and-hold wins in stable markets like Vermont.

The Bottom Line

Vermont won't see a dramatic price collapse in 2026. But it also won't see the appreciation levels of 2021-2022. What you will see is a market working the way it's supposed to—where prices reflect actual demand, where affordability gradually improves, where transactions happen because people genuinely want to move, not because they're afraid of missing out.

That's not exciting. But it's sustainable. And in a market that's endured years of volatility, sustainability might be the most valuable commodity of all.

About Tony Walton

Tony Walton is Founding Partner and Principal Broker of New England Landmark Realty, serving Central Vermont's Washington, Lamoille, and Chittenden Counties for nearly two decades. When he's not helping clients navigate market shifts, you'll find him skiing the Green Mountains, reading by a fire, or playing with his dogs, Trixie and Gracie.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in 2026?

Start planning your next move with the latest insights and expert guidance.

Contact Tony Walton

📍 Office: 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
📞 Phone: 802-253-4711
📧 Email: tonywalton@nelandmark.com
🌐 Web: View Tony's Profile