— The Numbers Guy on what 2026 sales really say about central Vermont.

A Vermont farm in autumn near Waterbury

For anyone watching central Vermont real estate: homes are taking about a week and a half longer to sell than they did a year ago. Prices have not slipped, and the number of homes changing hands has barely moved. This is a market that has stopped sprinting, not one that has lost its footing.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • Sales are steady: 617 homes sold January through October 2026, against 625 a year earlier.
  • Prices are up: the median sale price reached $475,000, about 5% above $452,000 last year.
  • Time is the change: the typical home spent 27 days on the market, against 18 a year ago.

What does the central Vermont housing market look like in 2026?

From January through October, 617 homes sold across the twelve towns we watch most closely: Waterbury, Stowe, the Mad River Valley, Montpelier, Barre, Middlesex, Duxbury and Morristown. Last year over the same months, 625 sold. That is essentially a tie.

Prices held their ground and then some. The median sale price reached $475,000, up about 5% from $452,000 a year earlier. Sellers are still getting close to what they ask, too: the typical home sold for about 98.5% of its list price, nearly identical to last year.

What changed is time. The typical home now spends 27 days on the market, against 18 a year ago. Buyers are still buying. They are simply taking a little longer to decide.

Why can one month of sales fool you?

If you looked only at October, you would have reached a gloomier conclusion. Sales across these towns fell from 102 last October to 67 this October, a drop of about a third.

But September tells the other half of the story. This September, 89 homes closed, against 60 the year before. Closing dates slip. A lender asks for one more document, an inspection repair takes an extra week, and a sale that would have closed on October 3 closes on September 29 instead, or the reverse. Put the two months together and this fall comes in about 4% behind last fall, not 34%.

Montpelier shows the same effect in miniature. The capital city recorded 15 sales in July, three times the July before, and then just 2 in October. Over the full ten months, Montpelier is down about 14% in sales while its median price edged up to $440,000. A small market measures like a mountain stream: check it on one afternoon and you learn about that afternoon. Check it across a season and you learn about the stream.

What does this mean for you?

If you are selling. Values have held, so the price your home can bring has not gone anywhere. What has changed is how much the market forgives a price set too high. With buyers taking more time, an overpriced listing tends to sit, and a home that sits starts to raise questions. A home priced right from the first day, and looking its best in the first photos, gives itself the best chance in that first stretch when buyers are paying the most attention. Plan on a few more weeks than a year ago, and use them well.

If you are buying. You have a bit more room to breathe than you did in the frenzy years. More homes are staying on the market long enough for a second showing, and the typical sale this October closed at about 97% of the asking price. Well-priced homes still move fast, though: more than a third of October's sales closed at or above asking. Breathing room is not the same as a bargain bin.

If you own a home and are staying put. Your equity has held up. Across these twelve towns, the median sale price is about 5% higher than a year ago, and a slower pace of sales has not meant falling prices.

If you are renting and dreaming. Prices have not dropped, so the entry point is where it was. What has improved is the pace. You are less likely to lose a home in a weekend bidding war, and more likely to have time to do your homework. A conversation with a lender now, before you fall for a house, puts that time to good use.

Quick answers

Are home prices falling in central Vermont?

No. Across Waterbury, Stowe, the Mad River Valley, Montpelier, Barre, Middlesex, Duxbury and Morristown, the median sale price from January through October 2026 was $475,000, about 5% above the same period in 2025.

Why did October 2026 home sales drop?

Mostly timing. September 2026 was unusually busy, with 89 sales against 60 a year earlier. Taken together, September and October were only about 4% below last year.

How long does it take to sell a home in central Vermont right now?

The typical home sold in 2026 spent 27 days on the market, compared with 18 days in 2025.

Are sellers still getting their asking price?

Close to it. The typical home has sold for about 98.5% of its list price this year.

Every town, street and house tells its own version of this story. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your home or your search, give us a call. We are happy to walk through it with you.

The Numbers Guy

Where to Go Next

Sources: New England Landmark Realty analysis of PrimeMLS residential sales (including condominiums) closed January 1 to October 31 in 2025 and 2026 for Waterbury, Stowe, Waitsfield, Warren, Fayston, Moretown, Montpelier, Middlesex, Duxbury, Morristown, Barre City and Barre Town, pulled November 14, 2026; medians calculated from individual sales. October 2026 counts may rise slightly as late closings are recorded.

New England Landmark Realty · 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, VT 05676 · Office (802) 253-4711 · Toll-Free (866) 324-2427 · Tony's cell (802) 233-4107 · www.nelandmark.com

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