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New England Landmark Realty covers the Vermont real estate market 

from the inside — market data, buyer strategy, seller timing, land 

use regulation, and the policy decisions shaping what homes cost and 

who can afford them.

 

Tony Walton has been working Vermont real estate since 1978. 

The analysis here reflects that depth.

 

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Dec. 19, 2025

Where Vermont Builders Make Their Money: The 2025–2026 Builder Profit Trend Report and the Impact of Act 181

By New England Landmark Realty LTD

Welcome to the Age of Strategic Density

Vermont is known for its pristine landscapes, rugged independence, and—let’s be honest—some of the strictest development laws in the country. But change is in the air.

2025 isn’t just another year in construction. It’s a bridge year—standing between the post-pandemic building boom and the statewide zoning revolution triggered by Act 181, the “Community Resilience and Biodiversity Protection Through Land Use Act.”

Signed into law in mid-2024, Act 181 doesn’t erase Act 250—it repositions it. After 50 years of regulating development largely by project size, Vermont is shifting to a location-based system where where you build matters more than what you build.

So where are Vermont builders actually making money now? And where will the next profits emerge in 2026 and beyond?

2025: The Profit Hotspots Right Now

This year is defined by three hard economic realities: high interest rates, tight labor, and shrinking permitting windows. Yet smart developers are still finding high-margin opportunities.

1. The “Interim Exemption” Rush (Multifamily & Rentals)

  • Designated Downtowns: Qualifying housing projects are exempt from Act 250. No Act 250 unit cap—but local zoning still controls density.
  • Village Centers & ¼-Mile Buffer Zones: Up to 50 housing units fully exempt from Act 250.

Profit Play: Developers are fast-tracking duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, and mixed-use housing that would’ve been strangled by permitting costs just a year ago. Projects once marginal suddenly pencil out.

2. Luxury Custom Homes: The “Safe Margin” Bet

  • High-net-worth buyers aren’t sweating mortgage rates.
  • Hot markets: Stowe, Woodstock, Shelburne, Charlotte, Champlain Islands.
  • Why it pays: A single $2M custom home can outperform five starter homes—and with fewer supply-chain headaches.

3. ADUs and Small-Footprint Infill

  • Act 181 expands ADUs to 900 sq. ft. or 30% of the main home’s floor area—whichever is greater.
  • Why it matters: Remodelers and small builders thrive on infill with low friction and no land acquisition.

2026: When the Tier System Changes Everything

Tier 1A & 1B: The Green-Light Zones

  • Tier 1A: Core Downtown Growth Areas with full Act 250 exemption.
  • Tier 1B: Village Centers and Targeted Infill Zones, exempt up to 50 units.

Impact: Fast-tracked permits, lower soft costs, rising demand. Expect surging values in Waterbury, Essex Junction, Middlebury, Montpelier, Barre, Brattleboro.

Tier 2: Business As Usual

Act 250 remains unchanged. Builders here will continue to walk the line with 8–9 lot subdivisions to avoid full review. Margins persist but lag behind Tier 1A/1B.

Tier 3: The Red Zones (High Risk, Low Reward)

Includes Vermont’s most sensitive natural areas. The Land Use Review Board is finalizing exact triggers. Higher risks, slower timelines, and uncertain outcomes await here.

2026–2028: Forecasting the New Builder Gold Rush

Project Type 2026 Profit Outlook Why It Matters
50-Unit Village Condos 🚀 Highest Growth Tier 1B unlocks no-Act-250 infill at the perfect scale.
Downtown Mixed-Use 📈 Strong & Steady Full exemption + local zoning = vertical profit.
Rural Subdivisions (10+ lots) 📉 Declining Riskier vs. village-core opportunities; road rules increase complexity.
Commercial-to-Residential Adaptive Reuse 🔥 Major Opportunity Act 181 favors conversions in serviced areas.

What This Means for You

Real Estate Investors

  • Buy Tier 1B land now—prices will rise fast as 2026 nears.
  • Audit rural holdings for Tier 3 exposure; development value could shrink.

Builders

  • Shift your pipeline toward density.
  • Track the Tier 3 mapping process carefully.

Homeowners & Buyers

  • Sellers: A double-lot near a village center may be a redevelopment parcel—price accordingly.
  • Buyers: Expect more townhomes and condos hitting the market starting late 2026.

Want an Edge? Get the Map.

If you're serious about investing or building in Vermont, the next strategic move is simple:

Tell us the county, and we’ll pull the Draft Tier Maps or Interim Exemption Zones so you can see exactly where 2025–2026 profit centers are forming.

Take the Next Step

Explore the Vermont Home Buying Guide to understand how zoning changes affect your next move.

Selling? Learn how to price for the 2026 market shift and unlock full property potential.

Contact Tony Walton

Tony Walton – New England Landmark Realty

📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
📍 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
🌐 Meet Tony Walton

Posted in Vermont Housing Crisis
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Dec. 16, 2025

The 2026 Central Vermont Seller Playbook: How Homeowners in Waterbury, Stowe, Montpelier, Warren & Waitsfield Can Maximize Value

By Tony Walton

Welcome to the 2026 Central Vermont Seller Playbook. If you own a home in Waterbury, Stowe, Montpelier, Warren, or Waitsfield, this is your field guide for selling smart, selling fast, and—most importantly—selling for top dollar.

These five towns share more than just scenic mountain views and small-town charm. They're riding a wave of buyer interest driven by Vermont’s rising popularity as both a year-round lifestyle destination and a work-from-anywhere haven. But don’t mistake uniform interest for a one-size-fits-all selling strategy. The psychology of the 2026 buyer is complex—and so is the competitive landscape.

Let’s unpack what sellers across these markets need to know—and what each town’s homeowners should do differently to win big this winter-to-spring selling season.

2026 Buyer Psychology: Who’s Knocking?

  • Cash is king again. With interest rates still stubbornly high, more cash buyers are emerging, especially in Stowe and Warren.
  • Walkability, workability, and wellness. Buyers want homes that serve lifestyle and livelihood—think high-speed internet, home office space, and easy access to trails or town centers.
  • Ready to move yesterday. Low inventory has conditioned buyers to act fast—but they still expect polish. Homes that feel turnkey command a premium.

Winter-to-Spring Dynamics: The Golden Window

In Central Vermont, the real estate year doesn’t begin in May. It starts in late January, when winter tourists begin imagining life here full-time. Here's how it plays out:

  • January–March: Peak exposure in ski towns. Stowe, Warren, and Waitsfield see strong second-home and investor interest.
  • April–June: Commuter towns like Waterbury and Montpelier heat up as professionals plan summer moves.

Pro tip: List by mid-February for maximum leverage. You’ll beat the spring rush and ride the late-winter tourism wave.

High-ROI Improvements: Spend Smart, Not Big

  • Exterior paint and front door refresh
  • Mini-split heat pumps
  • Modern lighting and updated hardware
  • Decluttering and full staging
  • High-speed internet upgrades or promotion

Pricing Strategy: Know the Game, Play It Well

Sellers often ask, “Can I price high and wait?” Short answer: not in 2026.

The Central Vermont buyer is sophisticated, data-driven, and comparison shopping in real time. Overpriced listings are punished—either ignored or negotiated down harshly.

Your move? Price slightly below perceived value. It sparks competition and often leads to bidding wars, especially in Montpelier and Waterbury where inventory is tight.

Digital Marketing: Your Listing, Everywhere It Matters

  • Professional photography and video walk-through
  • Drone footage to showcase views, lot size, and surroundings
  • 3D tours to attract out-of-state and international buyers
  • Hyper-local social media targeting (especially effective in Montpelier and Stowe)
  • Syndication to national platforms and niche luxury sites

What to Prioritize, Town by Town

Stowe: Luxury and Second-Home Magnet

  • Focus: Staging, high-end photography, prestige marketing
  • Must-Have: Outdoor space presentation and ski access clarity
  • Buyer: Affluent, likely from New York, Boston, or overseas

Waterbury: Commuter Convenience

  • Focus: Functional layouts, energy efficiency, easy maintenance
  • Must-Have: Updated kitchens and baths
  • Buyer: Professionals commuting to Burlington or Montpelier

Montpelier: Capital of Walkability

  • Focus: Proximity to downtown, broadband, charm
  • Must-Have: A home office space and modern upgrades
  • Buyer: Remote professionals, government employees, downsizers

Warren and Waitsfield: Resort-Driven Appeal

  • Focus: Short-term rental potential, views, and access
  • Must-Have: Stylish interiors, low maintenance, furnished options
  • Buyer: Investors and vacation-home seekers, many buying sight unseen

Final Take: Strategy Wins in 2026

This is not a market where you list and hope. It’s a market where strategy drives success. Central Vermont sellers who prepare, price smartly, and market like pros will dominate the early 2026 landscape.

Ready to List? Tony Walton Has Your Back.

With decades of experience, local roots, and a proven track record across Waterbury, Stowe, Montpelier, Warren, and Waitsfield, Tony Walton and the New England Landmark Realty team are ready to help you make your next move your best one.

Explore the Vermont Home Buying Guide

Get Your Free Home Valuation

Contact Tony Walton

Phone: 802-253-4711

Email: tonywalton@nelandmark.com

Office: 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676

Website: Visit Tony Walton’s Realtor Page

Posted in Home Selling Tips
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Dec. 12, 2025

Powell vs. The President, Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Obsess Over Interest Rates

By Harris Vexley

It is a truth universally acknowledged — at least in certain Twitter threads — that when Jerome Powell so much as blinks, someone in the White House drafts a strongly worded post about it. The modern saga between a Federal Reserve chair and his commander-in-chief has all the dramatic gravity of a Shakespeare play, if Shakespeare had been obsessed with 25 basis points and tweeted half as much.

Powell, the man chosen to steer the nation’s monetary policy with the unshakeable calm of a bank executive who once balanced a spreadsheet without breaking a sweat, has been dutifully cutting interest rates. Three quarter-point nudges downward in 2025 have brought borrowing costs to their lowest in years — a move meant to coax the economy toward growth without jolting inflation back to the stratosphere.

Meanwhile, the President — who originally put Powell in this role — has decided that nuanced economic judgement is a flaw rather than a feature. The President’s position can be summarized thusly: cut faster, cut deeper, cut until mortgages cost less than a cup of coffee. This has not gone over well in Powell’s world, in which markets and data are supposed to matter.

The press releases littering this ongoing feud read like royal proclamations from rival kingdoms that both definitely own the exact same castle. On one side is Powell, professorial and cautious, warning that another cut hinges on labor market reports and inflation data he has only just begun to understand through a pile of delayed statistics.

On the other is the President, urging louder applause for rate reductions (and on occasion floating the idea of a lawsuit over Fed renovation costs, a twist that economists are very excited about).

Of course, this is not your typical “miscommunication.” This is a spat — the sort that makes political aides clutch their pearls and spreadsheet nerds quietly cheer. But beneath the barbs lies a more structural irony: the Federal Reserve is legally designed to be independent. That means Powell does not take orders like a barista taking a coffee order — he responds to economic conditions like someone watching a pot that might never quite boil or quite cool.

As 2026 looms, the stage is set with Powell nearing the end of his term and both camps loudly murmuring about what comes next. Powell’s successors — possibly picked by the very President who has spent months publicly demanding a different approach — will inherit not just interest rates but the lingering question: whose job is this, anyway? Stability? Growth? Or just winning social media arguments with economic jargon?

In the meantime, the American public watches, mortgage statements in hand, wondering whether the next cut will resemble a cautious whisper or a presidential tweet. And if there’s one thing we can count on, it’s that whoever steps into Powell’s shoes in 2026 will need both hands free — one for economic data, and the other for dodging strongly worded political commentary.

Explore More Market Insights

Want to know how interest rate shifts could impact your Vermont home value? Check out our Home Buying Guide or read up on how to position your property strategically with our Seller’s Resource Center.

Contact Tony Walton for Local Market Perspective

📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
📍 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
🌐 Meet Tony Walton

Posted in Harris Vexley Humor
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Dec. 5, 2025

Your First Home in Vermont: What Today’s Buyers Really Need to Know

By Trish Sawyer

If you’re thinking about buying your first home in Vermont — or you know someone who is — you’re not imagining things. It really does seem harder than ever. Prices are up, inventory is tight, and competition is real. But here’s the truth I see every day across Central Vermont:

First-time buyers are still getting into homes — and they’re doing it by getting informed, prepared, and strategic.

Whether you’re dreaming of your first condo, starter home, or a quiet piece of Vermont hillside, here’s what’s really going on in today’s market and how to set yourself up for success.

Affordability Is a Challenge — But Not a Dealbreaker

Let’s address the big question first: Is Vermont affordable for first-time buyers?

The honest answer? It’s challenging — but absolutely possible.

Vermont’s median home price has hovered around $430K+, and in many Central Vermont towns, prices have climbed faster than incomes.

True “starter homes” are in short supply, and when they do come up, they often attract multiple offers, even in today's more balanced market.

Higher interest rates mean monthly payments matter more than ever.

But here’s the good news:
First-time buyers who are well-prepared, well-advised, and realistic are still getting into homes — often faster than they expected.

What the Data Says About First-Time Buyers — Especially in Vermont

Vermont-Specific Insights

According to Vermont Association of REALTORS® communications, the median age of a first-time buyer in Vermont is now around 38 years old, up from 35 just the year before.

VHFA (Vermont Housing Finance Agency) reports that buyers who use first-generation or down-payment assistance programs typically purchase homes priced around $240,000, with household incomes averaging $75,000.

These numbers tell a story: many Vermonters entering the market today are in their late 30s or early 40s, often established in their careers and motivated to find long-term stability.

If you’re buying your first home later in life, you’re not behind — you’re right on trend.

What Vermont First-Time Buyers Are Searching For Right Now

  • Move-in-ready homes with manageable maintenance – Buyers want reliable systems, energy efficiency, and homes that won’t surprise them with big ticket repairs.
  • Smaller single-family homes or townhomes – That Vermont charm with space to breathe, but at a realistic price point.
  • Good commuting access or remote-work-friendly spaces – Montpelier, Burlington, and work-from-home options are key.
  • Lifestyle and community – Local schools, dining, and outdoor recreation are just as important as square footage.
  • Clear, upfront numbers – Monthly costs, utilities, and taxes need to be transparent.

How I Help First-Time Buyers Thrive in This Market

  • A Budget-First Approach – I work with lenders who specialize in first-time buyers and understand all assistance options.
  • Education + Preparation = Power – From pre-approval to inspections, you’ll get a full roadmap.
  • Spotting First-Time Friendly Homes – I flag under-the-radar listings that are often overlooked — and end up being perfect.
  • Winning Offers with Strategy – From FSBOs to off-market deals, I help tailor your offer with the best chance of acceptance.
  • Support Beyond Closing – From contractors to community, I connect you with what you need long after the move.

A Final Thought — and an Invitation

If you’re a first-time buyer, don’t let headlines scare you away. Vermont real estate is competitive, yes — but it’s also full of opportunity for the prepared and the well-supported. If you’d like help figuring out where to start, what you can afford, or what the market really looks like in your price range, I’m here. Let’s build a plan that fits your goals and your lifestyle!

Ready to Start Your First-Time Buyer Journey?

Let’s make your first Vermont home a reality. I specialize in guiding first-time buyers in Central Vermont through every step — from pre-approval to move-in. Let’s build a smart strategy that fits your lifestyle and budget.

Start Your Home Buying Journey Here | Thinking of Selling Too?

Contact Trish Sawyer Today

📞 802-279-8554
📧 trishsawyer@nelandmark.com
📍 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
🌐 View Trish's Profile

Posted in Home Buying Tips
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Dec. 3, 2025

Vermont’s Housing Crisis Is a Federal Failure in Disguise

By New England Landmark Realty LTD

Forget the postcard. Vermont may look like serenity wrapped in snowcaps, but beneath the surface, housing has become a slow-motion emergency — and Washington is holding the match. While demand surges and prices soar, the federal policies that once anchored affordability are vanishing, leaving local leaders scrambling for duct tape.

The Numbers That Should Make D.C. Sweat

Vermont saw the highest home-price growth in the country last year — a blistering 12.8%, nearly triple the national rate. Median home prices in 2025 are now hovering around $434,200, putting basic shelter out of reach for vast swaths of Vermonters. [Source: Redfin]

  • HUD’s Housing Choice Voucher program is facing massive shortfalls. In Vermont, that could mean hundreds of families losing rental support by early 2026.
  • HOME and CDBG grants have seen year-over-year cuts, hitting rural states the hardest.
  • Federal financing delays and red tape have added up to 20% in project costs for builders.

D.C. Austerity Is Vermont’s Crisis Multiplier

When federal policy deflates, rural housing markets don't just get squeezed — they get gutted. Vermont relies more heavily than urban centers on federal subsidies to make affordable housing pencil out. Without those dollars, local non-profits and housing authorities are left with plans, not buildings.

Worse, the feds have shoved the responsibility onto local governments without the resources to match. “Local control” without local funding is just a recipe for stagnation.

And let’s not kid ourselves: when voucher programs collapse or subsidies vanish, who steps in? Investors. Out-of-staters. Short-term rental speculators. The system becomes a funnel — draining homes from families into asset portfolios.

Why This Isn’t Just a Vermont Problem

Vermont is the canary in America’s housing coal mine. A small state, aging population, lots of tourism, and rural infrastructure. If federal housing tools can’t be made to work here, they won’t work anywhere. What’s coming for Vermont is headed for New Hampshire, Maine, upstate New York, and beyond.

Conclusion: Less Talk, More Trusses

Vermont’s housing crisis isn’t just a local failure — it’s a federally fueled collapse. And it’s time to stop treating housing like a soft issue. It’s infrastructure. It’s economics. It’s survival.

At New England Landmark Realty, we’re on the ground every day — navigating this market, helping Vermonters find homes in a system stacked against them. Want to cut through the noise and make your next move with clarity? Talk to us. We know how to turn market chaos into opportunity — even when D.C. won’t help.

We’re Not Waiting on Washington — And Neither Should You

Whether you're a local family struggling to buy your first home, an investor committed to ethical development, or someone looking to downsize in a tightening market, our experienced agents are ready to help.

Get started today — talk to our team, request a home valuation, or browse listings built around your needs. Let’s build your next chapter, together.

Contact Tony Walton

📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
🏢 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
🌐 Visit Tony’s Realtor Page

Posted in National Real Estate Trends
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Dec. 2, 2025

Will Vermont Home Prices Drop in 2026? What the Data Actually Says

Expert analysis from Tony Walton, Principal Broker at New England Landmark Realty, on what Vermont homebuyers and sellers can expect from the market in 2026.

The Real Market Story

The question lands in my inbox at least twice a week: Are prices really going to fall? People ask it with a mixture of hope and dread, like they're betting the market will finally correct itself. The honest answer is more complex than a yes or no, and frankly, that complexity is where the actual opportunity lies.

Vermont's real estate market doesn't operate in headlines. It operates in tensions—between supply and demand, between local lifestyle appeal and national economic currents, between what people fear and what the data actually shows.

Let's start with what happened. In September 2024, fewer homes sold in Vermont compared to the year before—down about 9%. This detail gets amplified by people searching for vindication: See? The market is cooling. But here's the catch: prices didn't collapse. They actually rose 3% year-over-year. The median sale price sat at $406,100. That's not a market breaking apart. That's a market recalibrating.

Meanwhile, inventory jumped 33%. More homes on the market. Fewer sales. Yet prices held. Why? Because Vermont still faces a fundamental constraint: there simply aren't enough homes available. A four-month supply still favors sellers, even if it doesn't feel that way compared to the pandemic era when homes sold in hours.

The 2026 Forecast Isn't as Dramatic as People Hope

National housing analysts project home prices will rise 3-4% nationally in 2026. Mortgage rates are expected to settle between 5.9% and 6.2%—down from current levels but nothing like the 3% rates that defined 2020-2021. It's the opposite of a housing fire sale. It's normalization.

For Vermont specifically, the projections vary by region. Burlington—the state's economic engine—is expected to grow modestly. Rutland and Barre face near-flat conditions or slight declines. Central Vermont, where New England Landmark operates, sits in that interesting middle ground: not booming, but not collapsing either. In fact, northwest and central Vermont have seen median sale prices climb to $500,000, representing a 5.26% increase from the prior year.

What's Actually Driving This Market

Here's what separates Vermont from the narrative of national market collapse: the why behind Vermont demand.

People don't move to Vermont because of rate arbitrage or pandemic novelty anymore. Those waves have passed. People move here now because they've decided they want to raise a family in a place with real schools, real mountains, and real community. That decision-making process is stickier. It's less price-sensitive.

Chittenden County's median home sale price hovers around $539,000. Lamoille County—your access point to both mountain recreation and rural charm—holds steady at $500,000. These aren't declining. They're holding their ground in a market where the easy money has already been made.

The tourism and second-home market, often overlooked in national analyses, continues to provide underlying support. Stowe, Killington, and the Champlain Valley aren't dealing with the same real estate collapse as markets like Nashville or Austin, which boomed during the remote-work era and are now struggling as offices call people back and insurance costs spike. Vermont's tourism-driven demand is countercyclical to broader economic shifts—it actually performs better when people need an escape.

The Affordability Inflection Point

Here's where 2026 actually matters: this is the first year in a decade where wages are projected to grow faster than home prices.

That's not revolutionary. It's corrective. For years, buyers have been priced out by the basic math: home prices shot up faster than paychecks could follow. That gap is finally narrowing. Combine slightly lower mortgage rates with modest price growth, and the monthly payment equation starts working again for people who've been frozen out.

That drives volume differently than price. More buyers entering the market means more transactions, more pricing clarity, more movement. Not necessarily higher prices.

The Regional Nuance Matters

Washington County, Lamoille County, and Chittenden County aren't monoliths. A home in downtown Waterbury operates in a different market than a home in a rural Washington County town. A property near Stowe has different demand drivers than a property in Barre.

The forecasts that show Rutland potentially declining while Burlington holds steady reflect this reality. Supply is distributed unevenly. Demand is distributed unevenly. Local factors—new employers, school performance, access to recreation—matter as much as national rates.

What Actually Changes in 2026

If Vermont home prices don't drop significantly, what does change?

  • Inventory dynamics shift: More homes on the market changes the negotiating position.
  • Days on market increase: Especially for homes priced too high or in lower-demand areas.
  • Seller psychology adjusts: The “name your price” era is over.
  • Buyer psychology changes too: More leverage, fewer bidding wars, and better terms for buyers.

What This Means for You

If you're a buyer: The crash probably isn’t coming. But conditions may be better for you—more inventory, affordability gains, and less competition.

If you're a seller: Price to today’s market. Focus on real value like efficiency and updates. The market rewards realism.

If you're an investor: Cash flow beats speculation. Buy-and-hold wins in stable markets like Vermont.

The Bottom Line

Vermont won't see a dramatic price collapse in 2026. But it also won't see the appreciation levels of 2021-2022. What you will see is a market working the way it's supposed to—where prices reflect actual demand, where affordability gradually improves, where transactions happen because people genuinely want to move, not because they're afraid of missing out.

That's not exciting. But it's sustainable. And in a market that's endured years of volatility, sustainability might be the most valuable commodity of all.

About Tony Walton

Tony Walton is Founding Partner and Principal Broker of New England Landmark Realty, serving Central Vermont's Washington, Lamoille, and Chittenden Counties for nearly two decades. When he's not helping clients navigate market shifts, you'll find him skiing the Green Mountains, reading by a fire, or playing with his dogs, Trixie and Gracie.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in 2026?

Start planning your next move with the latest insights and expert guidance.

Contact Tony Walton

📍 Office: 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
📞 Phone: 802-253-4711
📧 Email: tonywalton@nelandmark.com
🌐 Web: View Tony's Profile

Posted in Market Updates, Vermont Real Estate Trends
no comments yet
Nov. 30, 2025

Vermont Housing Market Alert: Lower Rates, Higher Prices, Less Time

By New England Landmark Realty LTD

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes like Robert Frost on his worst day—and right now, the national housing market is rhyming with revenge.

The data dropped this week like a warning shot across Lake Champlain: total pending home sales hit a multiyear high, mortgage rates have held below 6.64% for 16 consecutive weeks, and purchase applications are surging 26% year-over-year. Wall Street is calling this "recovery." In Washington, Lamoille, and Chittenden counties, we call it the calm before the storm.

The Death of Vermont Seasonality: 2020 Changed Everything

Let's bury the most expensive myth in Vermont real estate: the notion that our market hibernates when the snow flies. That quaint idea died in March 2020, right alongside the concept that you need to live near your office.

I've closed deals in January blizzards and February deep freezes. I've had bidding wars in March mud season and competitive offers on Thanksgiving weekend. The remote work revolution didn't just change where people work—it obliterated the seasonal patterns that governed our market for generations.

Since 2020, Vermont operates as a 24/7/365 marketplace where demand doesn't care about snow tires, mud season, or black fly season. Buyers think lifestyle first, logistics never. They're not waiting for spring—they're buying whenever they find the right property, because the right property in Vermont doesn't wait for anyone.

The old rhythm—list in April, sell in June, regroup in fall—has been replaced by a new rule: If a good listing hits in your price range in a decent town, it's in season.

The Rate Trap: Why Waiting Is Financial Suicide

Here's the uncomfortable truth that should keep every prospective buyer awake at night: lower rates are not your salvation—they're your competition's invitation to the party.

The math is brutal and simple:

  • At 7%+, many locals bow out entirely
  • At 6%+, they stretch hard but stay disciplined
  • At something starting with a 5, the floodgates open

Every quarter-point drop in rates does three things in our market:

  1. Reactivates “wait-and-see” locals from Waterbury, Montpelier, or Burlington
  2. Reinvites out-of-state buyers from Boston, NYC, and NJ
  3. Tightens already limited inventory

The result: Lower rates equal more competition plus fewer options. Not relief—acceleration.

The Ghost of 2021: Pre-Bloodbath, The Sequel

When I look at 42 straight weeks of positive year-over-year purchase app data and 29 weeks of double-digit growth, I don't see some soft landing. I see the early outline of Pre-2022: The Sequel—maybe not as insane, but rhyming with it perfectly.

What that era looked like in Vermont:

  • "We'll wait for a quieter time" meant never buying
  • "We'll just see what comes up" meant chasing prices uphill for 18 months
  • "We don't want to overpay" meant renting for three more years

The ingredients are in place: scarce supply, lifestyle migration, improved rates. That doesn't point to "deals"—it points to velocity.

The Competition Equation: Know Your Opponents

If you're a local buyer, you're not imagining things—it is hard. You're competing with:

  • Remote workers with big-city incomes
  • Second-home buyers who don’t negotiate aggressively
  • Climate migrants already emotionally committed to Vermont

But at 6.3%, you still have an edge—room to negotiate and win without madness. That window is closing.

The Inventory Reality: Scarcity as a Feature

National inventory growth is up 15.5% YoY. In Vermont? That might mean 2 or 3 good homes become 4. No subdivisions. No tract housing. Just trickle listings filtered by topography and permits.

Our scarcity isn’t a bug—it’s a feature. And when competition rises again, even that modest bump vanishes.

For Vermont Buyers: The Harsh Math of Timing

If you're waiting for lower rates, lower prices, and less competition—you're betting against reality.

You can refinance a rate. You can't refinance missing the house entirely.

The smart money acts when there's leverage—not when the crowd stampedes.

For Vermont Sellers: The Strategic Window

You’re not racing the seasons. You’re racing buyer psychology and mortgage rate bands. List before the next big rate drop and you’ll capture serious buyers before they turn manic.

The 2026 Setup: All Systems Go

If spreads normalize and rates fall closer to 6%, we’ll be back in velocity mode. For Vermont? That’s not balance. That’s chaos.

The Bottom Line: Act While You Can Negotiate

We live in one of the most beautiful places on Earth, where the mountains aren't going anywhere, the communities aren't diluting, and the opportunity to own a piece of this place is narrowing by the week.

The mortgage rate environment is cooperating right now. Inventory is stabilizing right now. Buyers are motivated but not manic right now.

When rates drop—and they will—all of that changes. You'll be competing with everyone who's been waiting for their "perfect moment," and perfect moments in Vermont real estate are as rare as a warm February.

Stop waiting for perfect rates and start acting in the imperfect present. Buy when you can negotiate, not when you're forced to capitulate. The bloodbath isn't dead—it's dormant. And it looks like it's waking up.

Life is so rich—especially when you have the courage to act while others hesitate.

Ready to Navigate the Market with a Pro?

If you're buying or selling in Chittenden, Lamoille, or Washington County, now is the time to act. Whether you need help making sense of the market or you're ready to tour homes, Tony Walton is here to guide you.

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🏠 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, VT 05676
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Posted in National Real Estate Trends
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Nov. 28, 2025

Congress Accidentally Passes Legislation While Studying Vermont Town Meeting Model

WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a stunning breach of tradition, the U.S. Congress inadvertently passed actual legislation Tuesday after participating in a Vermont-style Town Meeting simulation.

The exercise, intended as a harmless cultural exchange, devolved into uncharacteristic productivity after lawmakers sat in folding chairs, drank local cider, and were required to speak without interrupting each other.

“We thought it was role-play,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson. “But before we knew it, someone proposed a bill, there was a civil discussion, and then — God help us — we voted on it.”

The legislation, a bipartisan infrastructure package to replace bridges, broadband, and dignity, passed 423–12 after an impassioned 6-minute speech from Rep. Peter Welch, who began by thanking everyone for the homemade muffins.

“I think we were all just confused,” admitted Senator Ted Cruz. “I kept waiting for the part where we yell at each other on cable news.”

The transformation reportedly began when Vermont State Rep. Marge Tillingham of Barnard handed out a sample agenda titled “Fix Stuff Without Being a Jerk.” Several lawmakers attempted to add poison-pill amendments but were quickly told to “sit down, and wait their turn” by a stern Vermont librarian who was observing.

Senator Bernie Sanders refused to comment but was seen grinning and handing out flannel vests with the slogan: “Democracy is a Potluck.”

The simulation was so successful that a new congressional dress code was floated, requiring L.L. Bean boots and mandatory decaf. AOC proposed a House-wide knitting circle as “an icebreaker and a metaphor.”

“It turns out when you remove lobbyists, time limits, and televised grandstanding, people remember they’re adults,” noted Vermont Governor Phil Scott. “This is how we decide school budgets, snow plow routes, and which barn gets fixed next.”

Senator Mitch McConnell later claimed he “blacked out somewhere around the apple crumble” and woke up in a signed coalition agreement with Elizabeth Warren and a retired dairy farmer named Ed.

The bill is now expected to stall in the Senate, where the rules committee has objected to the use of folding chairs due to “lack of lumbar support.”

“I don’t know what just happened,” said Rep. Jim Jordan, looking dazed. “But I think we governed.”

Inspired by Vermont-Style Cooperation?

Whether you're looking to pass legislation or just pass the potatoes at a community potluck, Vermont’s civic model offers more than great muffins — it offers real results.

Discover homes where neighbors still say hi, democracy happens in barns, and you can vote next to a crockpot.

Contact Tony Walton – Vermont Real Estate with Small Town Integrity

📍 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, Vermont 05676
📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
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Posted in Community Insights
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Nov. 27, 2025

Vermont’s Quiet Land Use Pivot: What Tier 3 Means for Rural Land, Small Towns, and the Future of Housing

By Tony Walton – November 2025

Most Vermonters don’t know it yet, but our state is undergoing a quiet transformation — one that will shape where we live, what our towns look like, how land is valued, and what future generations can build. It’s happening in meeting rooms, working groups, regional planning sessions, and Act 250 hearings that few attend and even fewer follow. But the effects will touch every landowner in Vermont.

If you haven’t heard of Tier 3 or Tier 1B housing appeals, or if the phrase “Act 250 modernization” makes you want to take a nap, you’re not alone. These changes aren’t on most Vermonters’ radar. They’re technical, procedural, and wrapped in planning language that feels far removed from what happens on your road or in your village.

And yet — they amount to the biggest shift in Vermont land‑use philosophy since Act 250 was passed in 1970.

1. The New Direction: Rural Land Stays Rural, Town Centers Grow

For generations, rural development in Vermont followed a predictable pattern:
If a landowner had road frontage and could get a wastewater permit, they could usually build a home or create a few lots. Towns varied in requirements, but the basic rules held.

Today, that pattern is breaking.

With Tier 3 designations expanding across many rural parts of the state and Tier 1 and 1B designations signalling where the state wants housing growth to occur, Vermont has taken a clear position:

Preserve resource lands.
Concentrate growth in village and town centers.

State documents talk about “predictability,” “ecological protection,” “housing creation,” and “streamlining,” but the underlying direction is unmistakable. Tier 3 land will face more constraints, more studies, and more scrutiny than ever. Tier 1 areas — places with sewer, water, walkability, and services — will eventually enjoy faster Act 250 approvals and, hopefully, simplified zoning.

It’s a shift toward compact, walkable, infrastructure-efficient living — and away from dispersed large‑lot, rural sprawl.

2. Why Most Vermonters Haven’t Heard About This Yet

If you haven’t been following:

  • Land Use Review Board meeting minutes
  • Tier 3 working group transcripts
  • Regional Planning Commission pre-application reviews
  • Committee testimony
  • Or Appeals Study sessions

…you would never know this change is underway.

That’s not because anything is being hidden — it’s because the process is technical, decentralized, and not reported on in any meaningful way. Vermont doesn’t have a robust land‑use press corps. Local papers don’t have the staff to cover 3‑hour committee hearings. The public doesn’t flock to planning meetings.

So while the public conversation focuses on housing prices, flooding, and school budgets, the actual regulatory framework shaping the next 20–40 years is quietly being built step by step.

3. The State’s Logic: Why Push Development Inward?

The underlying reasons make sense:

  • Infrastructure: Sewer and water systems can’t be cost‑effectively built everywhere.
  • Environment: Rural development often overlaps sensitive habitats, wetlands, and flood corridors.
  • Climate: Concentrated growth reduces vehicle miles and preserves carbon‑absorbing land.
  • Housing: The fastest path to new units is infill where services already exist.
  • Costs: Compact development is cheaper to maintain than scattered development.

In pure planning terms, this is smart policy.

The challenge isn’t the goals — it’s the execution, because…

4. The Bottleneck No One Talks About: Local Zoning

Here’s the catch:

Even if the state streamlines Act 250 for growth centers, developers still need to pass through local zoning first.

That means:

  • DRB hearings
  • Planning commission meetings
  • Design review
  • Conditional use review
  • Parking requirements
  • Setbacks
  • Height limits
  • Neighborhood objections
  • Traffic studies
  • Infrastructure allocation decisions
  • Multiple rounds of revisions

Act 250 isn’t the biggest barrier to housing in Vermont anymore. Local zoning is.

And nothing in the Tier 3/Tier 1 framework overrides local boards — at least not yet.

This creates a tension that will define Vermont’s next decade: the state is pushing growth toward town centers faster than those towns are prepared — or politically willing — to accept it.

5. What This Means for Rural Landowners

If you own rural land, Tier 3 doesn’t eliminate your ability to build. But it does:

  • Add regulatory uncertainty
  • Increase the cost of studies
  • Reduce the potential for subdivision
  • Lengthen timelines
  • Introduce more appeals risk

Over time, this softens the development value of rural land, even if its amenity, recreational, or scenic value stays strong.

This won’t happen overnight. But it will happen.

Vermont is creating a system where development energy drains away from rural areas and pools inside village boundaries. Over 5–15 years, that will influence pricing, investment patterns, and long-term land-use strategies.

6. What This Means for Town Centers

Small Vermont towns — Waterbury, Stowe, Richmond, Waitsfield, Morrisville, Montpelier, and many others — are now positioned for the next chapter of Vermont’s growth.

Whether they want to be or not.

If these towns embrace housing‑friendly zoning, the next decade could bring:

  • Infill apartments
  • Small‑scale mixed‑use buildings
  • Redevelopment of older commercial stock
  • Accessory dwelling units
  • Townhouses
  • Senior housing
  • Workforce housing over shops
  • Rehabbing of underused properties
  • More walkable village centers

If they do not — if local boards reject this shift — then the state will eventually face pressure to act more forcefully, just as other states have done during severe housing shortages.

That moment hasn’t come yet in Vermont. But the underlying forces are building.

7. Why This Matters Now (Not Two Years From Now)

This is not hype or alarmism — it’s simply where the policy and planning winds are blowing.

Whether you’re a homeowner, a landowner, a buyer, a seller, a builder, or a town official, understanding Tier 3 and Vermont’s growth‑center strategy is critical for long-term planning.

And right now, almost no one in Vermont knows this shift is happening.

That’s why staying informed matters.

8. Where to Learn More (Official & Regional Resources)

These are the best places for Vermonters to follow what’s changing:

Official State Resources

Regional Planning Perspective

These resources offer a full picture — from policy architects to municipal planners to environmental watchdogs.

These are not advocacy sources — they are direct, factual, government‑managed hubs of information.

9. The Road Ahead: A Fork in the Vermont Forest

Vermont is at a turning point, even if we don’t realize it yet.

We can adapt thoughtfully — by aligning town zoning, state incentives, infrastructure capacity, and community goals — or we can resist change and face far greater housing pressures in the years ahead.

The rules are shifting. The map is shifting. And the value of land — whether in town centers or rural hillsides — will shift with it.

Get Guidance for Buyers or Sellers

If you own land, a home, or are considering purchasing or selling in Vermont — staying ahead of these land‑use shifts can make a big difference. Learn how these trends affect you:

Contact Tony Walton for Personalized Advice

If you have questions about how Tier 3 changes could affect your property value, rural land, or potential for development — I’m here to help.

Tony Walton
New England Landmark Realty
26 N Main Street, Suite 2
Waterbury, Vermont 05676
Phone: 802‑253‑4711
Email: tonywalton@nelandmark.com
Learn more about Tony Walton

Posted in Vermont Housing Crisis, Vermont Real Estate Trends
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Nov. 17, 2025

The Real Enemy of Affordable Housing Isn’t Builders — It’s Vermont Town Governments

Builders want to build. Families want to buy. But Vermont’s local regulations add $93,870 to every new home—and make entire housing types illegal. This isn’t market failure. It’s a regulatory obstruction.

Why Can't Builders Build in Vermont?

Despite demand, developers face a wall of red tape:

  • Zoning laws banning duplexes, triplexes, and ADUs
  • Lot size mandates that prevent modest homes
  • Act 250 delays that cost $2,000–$6,000 per unit
  • Permitting backlogs and aesthetic review boards

The True Cost of Regulation: $93,870 Per Home

According to the National Association of Home Builders, government regulation adds nearly $94,000 to the cost of a new home. In Vermont’s market, where median prices already top $353,000, that’s a disaster for first-time buyers and essential workers.

Act 250: Environmental Law or Housing Killer?

Act 250, meant to protect Vermont’s landscape, now stifles development in towns with full infrastructure. The permitting timeline adds months of delay, pushing many small builders to walk away.

Single-Family-Only Zoning: An Outdated Default

70% of Vermont’s residential land allows only single-family homes. That drives up land costs and limits supply—especially when smaller, more affordable options are what Vermonters actually need.

The NIMBY Effect: Wealth Protection Over Housing Needs

Town meetings are dominated by long-time property owners opposing new housing to “protect neighborhood character.” The result? Young families and workers are locked out, while property values inflate for those already inside.

The Solution Isn’t More Talk—It’s Policy Reform

  • Legalize duplexes and triplexes statewide
  • Eliminate minimum lot sizes in infrastructure-ready towns
  • Streamline permits under 25 units
  • Expose town-level obstruction through annual reporting

Looking to Buy in Vermont Despite the Barriers?

Use our tools to get started:

Talk to a Local Expert Who Gets It

Tony Walton, Principal Broker
📞 802-253-4711
📧 tonywalton@nelandmark.com
📍 26 N Main Street Suite 2, Waterbury, VT 05676
🌐 NELandmark.com

Affordable housing is possible. But only if we confront the real barriers—and build the Vermont future we say we believe in.

 

Posted in Vermont Housing Crisis
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